Zack Polanski has announced his intention to fight for the Commons seat vacated by Keir Starmer, setting up a high-stakes byelection pitting the mass campaigning of his Greens against a resurgent Labour under Andy Burnham.
Local Greens in Holborn and St Pancras still have to formally select their candidate under a process that will not be completed until next Friday. But it seems inevitable they will endorse Polanski, under whose leadership the party has soared in the polls, with membership more than tripling.
Polanski told the Camden New Journal newspaper that he wanted to “stand up for people struggling to pay their bills”, adding he was confident that the Greens could win the seat.
He lives in east London and had been expected to target a parliamentary seat there. Polanski, who was elected leader of the Greens in England and Wales a year ago, previously lived in Holborn and St Pancras and is a London assembly member. “I know it well and I love it,” he told the newspaper. “It represents so many of the things that make London so special.”
The area had “been held back by governments who have failed to make the changes to improve people’s lives”, he added.
The Greens are planning to flood the north London constituency with campaigners this weekend, building on the mobilisation model used to overturn a 13,000-plus Labour majority in Greater Manchester’s Gorton and Denton in February.
Starmer, who announced on Tuesday that he was stepping down from the seat he has represented since 2015, in the wake of his departure as prime minister, saw his majority slip at the last election from nearly 28,000 to 11,500 amid a challenge from the left.
The Greens came third, with Starmer’s main competitor being Andrew Feinstein, a leftwing independent. In a boost to Polanski, Feinstein confirmed on Thursday that he would not stand, indicating that the Camden People’s Alliance, the group which emerged from his campaign, would most likely back the Greens.
It will nonetheless be a huge challenge for the Greens, which will face a highly organised and motivated Labour campaign and a national party buoyed up by higher polling since Burnham took over in No 10.
Labour has not yet selected a candidate, but one hopeful could be Sagal Abdi-Wali, who is leader of the local council, Camden, and well known in the constituency.
One Green source said the byelection would be a chance for the party to use its increased campaigning resources and knowhow in an area where it won 10 seats in May’s local elections.
“The Labour machine is very good, but it is an engaged electorate, and we’re going to go all out,” they said. “There’s not really a downside for Zack doing this. If he loses it’s likely to be narrow, and he looks brave and committed. And if he wins, it would be against a huge Labour operation.”
Another source in the party, however, said that while many members welcomed the move, some would have preferred a more local candidate and had concerns about how Polanski could combine being an MP with his campaigning duties as leader.
The battle for Holborn and St Pancras would be “genuinely consequential”, said the pollster Luke Tryl, chief executive of pollsters More in Common.
“It is totally fascinating because it will define the contours of the electoral landscape on the left of British politics,” he said. “If the Greens win they get their mojo back; if Labour win then Burnham is a step closer to dealing with the challenge on his left.”
While the Greens were surging in popularity in London at the start of the year, polling has changed significantly since, making the outcome of the race far more uncertain, said Tryl.
“Earlier this year I would probably have said that the seat would be an easy Green gain, but since then two things have happened,” he said.
“One, Zack Polanski’s personal missteps have taken some of the shine off his appeal. Secondly, the Burnham bounce has not come from winning back voters from Reform but winning those on the left who were disillusioned with Keir Starmer. This is a huge test to see whether that shift holds.”
