Andy Burnham has spent his first two weeks as prime minister in a blitz of hyperactivity. Bus fares, business rates, energy bill cuts, defence, Ukraine and devolution – he has been everywhere.

But at his speech on Wednesday at Jewish Care in north London, there was a stark reminder of how much even the most energetic prime minister can cut through.

One resident in the care home asked Burnham if he was the local candidate, and was amazed when told there was – yet again – a new prime minister.

Despite that amusing hiccup, Labour MPs broadly feel a renewed sense of optimism in the “Burnham bounce” and in the party seizing its first polling lead since March 2025 in two polls released this week.

Both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats say they had been expecting a Labour surge, especially with Reform UK’s Nigel Farage in trouble over donations and fighting a byelection.

“We have consistently said internally we thought Labour would overtake Reform within a fortnight of Burnham becoming PM, it’s actually been pretty spot on,” one Conservative official said.

“I think it is clear now that there are two parties who have the upward momentum – us and Labour – and two whose support is falling – Reform and the Greens.”

Is it a honeymoon or is it a sustainable trajectory? In new MRP polling of more than 10,000 voters – seen by the Guardian – Burnham has received a bounce of six points in voting intention compared with mid-June, taking Labour to 26%, ahead of Reform on 23%. The poll puts Labour ahead on seats, though still some way short of a majority.

According to the poll, Labour would win 245 seats, with Reform on 174 seats, the Conservatives on 99 seats, and the Lib Dems on 67 seats. This would mean a hung parliament where a coalition would probably require at least three parties to form a majority.

The poll from Convergent suggests the bounce comes primarily from droves of progressive voters lost to the Greens and Lib Dems returning to Labour (more than half of 2024 Labour voters who voted Green and Lib Dem in the May elections now say they would vote Labour again). In contrast, less than a fifth of those 2024 Labour voters who voted Reform in May have come back to the party.

Dylan Spielman, co-founder of Convergent, led Labour’s data science team through the 2024 general election. He said: “The Andy Burnham bounce is real but not yet big enough to put Labour back on course for a majority. So far the recovery has mainly come from reuniting the progressive bloc.

“But Labour is making much less progress winning back Reform voters and Conservatives who are pivotal in marginal seats, and squeezed voters remain Labour’s weakest group. Sustaining the recovery will depend on Labour continuing to demonstrate that its cost-of-living agenda is delivering, and broadening its appeal beyond progressives.”

The analysis shows Labour has regained most ground in the north of England, particularly the north-west where Burnham has his roots and Yorkshire and Humber.

But the recovery is so far minimal in Wales and Scotland – where Burnham will spend some more time this summer after heavy losses to the SNP and to Plaid Cymru in May. Labour also lost control of the Senedd for the first time.

More than half of those polled were unable to identify particular policies that they had heard of – despite the early blitz of cost-of-living measures and announcements on social care and youth unemployment. It was the first policy Burnham announced – £2 bus fares and VAT off energy bills – which were the policies that voters say they have heard about.

But uniting that bloc is a key first step, argues James Baggaley from UCL’s Policy Lab, which has done significant work with the renowned Democrat pollster Stan Greenberg on Labour’s progressive problem.

“What was striking from our polling before Andy Burnham entered Downing Street was the fact that despite media focus, a majority of voters outside of the north-west didn’t have a clear idea of him. That meant the early days and weeks were both opportunity and a risk,” he said.

“He’s clearly hit the ground running, with a more hopeful and bold message. But he is also tapping into a wider shift and alignment of progressive voters, bringing back into the fold Green and Lib Dem voters that Keir Starmer had lost.

“Of course, the big challenge will be when he grapples with the things that are spikier for progressives – welfare, for example, and obviously he hasn’t had an interaction with Trump yet. The president remains uniquely unpopular with possible Labour voters; how he stands up on key progressive values in those moments will be a crucial in helping rebuild a winning coalition.”

Internally, Labour sources are thrilled with the choreography of the first fortnight, comparing it favourably with the 2024 arrival of Starmer when the summer was dominated by the winter fuel payment cut and freebies row – as well as a speech in the No 10 rose garden that was widely criticised for being too negative and affecting business confidence.

Luke Tryl, the director of More in Common, said it was the first time in a long time he was encountering genuine optimism in focus groups, who have been impressed with the cost-of-living measures even when the sums have been relatively small savings for households.

“Burnham is absolutely dominating the attention economy. Everything, everywhere, all at once. It’s the combination of the substance, but also the messenger is better,” he said. “Starmer led with the negative, saying it will then lead to the positive. I think by leading with some of the positives, then Burnham is able then to address the trickier issues.”

In its most recent polling, More in Common found Burnham’s popularity has significantly increased – to +19 – since he became prime minister when previously many people had said they were reserving judgment. Farage has seen a significant rise in disapproval, including growing scepticism from those who previously approved of him, and he is now the lowest rated party leader.

Tryl said there was much that could still derail Burnham – migrant crossings in the Channel, rows over welfare. “But in terms of setting yourself up in the best possible way, from a public opinion perspective, it’s difficult to see how it could have gone better.”