With memories still fresh of 2019, when pre-election predictions of 200-plus seats were followed by a haul of precisely 11, the first rule of Liberal Democrat conference is that you never talk about numbers. Nonetheless, one thing is abundantly clear: this is a party thinking big.
That might sound anomalous when we are perhaps three years from an election and the Lib Dems already have 72 MPs, the biggest contingent in a century. But in a political era almost unparalleled in flux, there is an argument they are responding to the chaos as effectively as anyone.
At the gathering in Bournemouth, MPs and officials were as good as unanimous on two fronts: first, that Ed Davey’s party increasingly faces a head-to-head fight with Reform; and second, that this unlikely and emerging battle could provide the party with an unprecedented electoral opportunity.
Such talk is necessarily freighted with caveats, including the very obvious one that the political landscape could change again. But it is based on data as well as hope.
The assumption is that the bulk of the 60-odd seats the Lib Dems won from the Conservatives in 2024 are relatively safe, partly because of the “Japanese knotweed” approach to embedding MPs but also because of the Tories’ continued collapse under Kemi Badenoch.
What has been more unexpected is the plummet in Keir Starmer’s poll ratings. In May’s local elections across England, the Lib Dems won more council seats than both Labour and the Conservatives, the first time this has ever happened.
The party is looking ahead to next May’s local elections with a growing sense that in a series of northern towns and cities, Labour risk being almost wiped out, leaving the Lib Dems as the main challengers to a probable Reform surge.
When it comes to the general election, Lib Dem strategists are preparing for a range of scenarios, including the prospect of targeting a very large number of seats, some of which might be new territory for the party.
“We need to rethink how we fight elections,” one MP said. “We’re really, really good at knocking on doors and delivering leaflets, but in the areas where we don’t have lots of activists we’ll need more of an air war, plus lots of money. Basically, being more like Reform. We need to go big or go home.”
Where this could end is impossible to predict. Overtaking the Conservatives is seen as entirely realistic, while Davey’s conference speech called the election “a historic opportunity to win big”.
This could seem hubristic, with shades of 2019 and Jo Swinson’s promise she could become prime minister, not least with the Lib Dems still stuck at or below 15% in national polls.
But below the headline figures lurk hopeful nuggets for the party. It has doubled its support among voters under 25, and is now the most popular party in the south of England, where many of its current seats are based.
Perhaps most crucially, when voters are asked which parties they could potentially vote for in the future, the Lib Dems are cited most often. This broad appeal could allow Lib Dem candidates to draw in votes from a varied coalition of people willing to vote tactically to stop Reform.
And while the media sometimes treats Davey as amiable if not entirely serious with his fondness for camera-friendly stunts, he is the most popular of the main party leaders, even if this comes with less knowledge about him.
Among his MPs, while a handful grumble occasionally about the stunts, there is no sense that anyone could or will challenge him. But at the same time, many are hoping the party leadership will rise to the challenge.
“We need a very broad range of policies, including on the cost of living and the economy,” one MP said. “Attacking Trump and Farage is fine, but we need to make sure we have a mainstream offering.”
What everyone agrees on is the need to stay focused. “If this is a middle-distance athletics race, we’re coming into the last lap on the shoulder of the leaders,” one senior party figure said. “We need a policy that will give us the sprint to victory. And it has to be something big.”
