Angela Rayner’s resignation not only as deputy prime minister but also as deputy Labour leader has triggered a fierce internal election battle to find her successor, and potentially a simultaneous battle for the soul of the party … again.
Rayner, who was seen by many across the party as a future leader, dramatically quit her two government positions and the party’s deputy leadership on Friday after the independent adviser on ministerial interests concluded she had breached the code by underpaying stamp duty on her seaside flat in Hove.
The MP for Ashton-under-Lyne won the deputy leadership in 2020 within the same ballot that propelled Keir Starmer to succeed Jeremy Corbyn.
Her resignation now forces Labour to hold an election for the deputy leader of the party, though the winner will not necessarily become deputy prime minister – as David Lammy has now been appointed to the role.
This contest comes at a problematic time for Starmer. The prime minister promised a “phase two” reset of his administration this week, and polling has consistently polled against Labour over the summer. A YouGov tracker in August put Starmer’s personal rating at 24% favourable and 68% unfavourable.
Within Labour, a poll by Survation in August showed 64% of party members felt the party was “heading in the wrong direction”. The prime minister’s net favourability with members had slipped to -9 points.
But the same polls show how certain ministers and MPs remain popular with Labour’s grassroots and this could shape the deputy race.
Labour’s members are likely to pick someone from the party’s left flank who will try to encourage ministers to stick to what they view as the party’s core values, as Rayner managed to do.
How it works
The party’s national executive committee will meet shortly to decide the timetable and procedure of this internal contest. The last time Labour held a deputy leadership contest while in government was in 2007 after Tony Blair resigned, Brown was elected leader, and Harriet Harman managed to beat Alan Johnson in a tight race.
Under the current rules, candidates must receive a nomination to stand from 20% (80) of their fellow Labour MPs. This must be followed by a nomination from 5% of local Labour party branches, known as constituency Labour parties or three affiliates of the party, at least two of which must be trade unions.
Once candidates have secured these nominations, a ballot is held in which Labour members and affiliates can vote. The ballot is preferential, and voters will mark in order of preference their favoured candidate to succeed Rayner.
Potential candidates
Shabana Mahmood
The rapidly rising new home secretary is a longtime Starmer ally who has a bold reputation for her organisational capabilities. There are many within Labour circles who are hoping to see her secure a stronger position within Labour’s NEC at party conference. Her role in shaping Labour’s electoral machinery marks her as a credible candidate.
Home secretary
Ed Miliband
The former Labour leader has been the most popular cabinet minister among Labour members. In recent surveys he enjoyed a net rating of +74 in Labour List’s cabinet rankings. Rayner was on +71 points before she stepped down, putting Miliband in pretty good stead.
Energy secretary
Emily Thornberry
The former shadow attorney general is a veteran MP who has held a number of senior roles. While she did upset Labour members with her initial position on the Gaza crisis, she has become increasingly vocal.
Chair of the foreign affairs select committee
Wes Streeting
Wes Streeting kept his position as health secretary in the reshuffle. While he is seen as a savvy media operator who can easily attack Labour’s political opponents, he is not in a very strong position politically. He narrowly held on to his seat at the general election, and is less popular with Labour members. In the latest poll he had only +9 points.
Health secretary
David Lammy
He has been elevated to deputy prime minister in the cabinet reshuffle and brings a wealth of experience, a reputation for his international network and realism. He has become an established voice on foreign policy and reform.
Justice secretary
Steve Reed
A close ally of Morgan McSweeney and Starmer, Reed could be a credible option for the prime minister. However, he sits on a net favourability of +9, so is not that popular with members.
Housing secretary
Bridget Phillipson
Phillipson is quite popular with Labour members and is seen as an influential voice on childcare and equality. She appeals to the grassroots for her clear messaging, with a net favourability of +28.
Education secretary
Peter Kyle
Kyle is widely seen as an effective “attack dog” on the government ministerial round. He has been central to Labour’s approach on AI, tech and regional growth, carrying a vision of innovation that may resonate with some of the party’s centrist members.
Business secretary
Rachel Reeves and Liz Kendall, despite their seniority, face persistently low member approval ratings that could make it difficult for them to win a nomination threshold let alone a ballot. This contest will test whether Labour can hold its grassroots and government together at once.
