Allowing Hongkongers who have moved to the UK to stay permanently after five years could net more than £4bn for the Treasury by 2029, according to a thinktank.
The analysis by the China Strategic Risks Institute (CSRI), which was sent to the Home Office before the budget, suggests the move could raise almost as much revenue as a year’s worth of air passenger duty by enabling Hongkongers to move their pension savings here.
More than 160,000 Hongkongers who hold British national (overseas) (BNO) passports have moved to the UK since 2021, according to Home Office figures from earlier this year.
The Conservative government at the time opened a visa route for BNO passport holders in response to China’s crackdown on democratic rights and civil liberties in Hong Kong.
At present, Hongkongers and other migrants can apply for indefinite leave to remain (ILR) after living in the UK legally for five years. However, the Labour government has announced plans to require people to live in the UK for 10 years before they are eligible.
It has yet to be determined whether these more restrictive requirements will apply to migrants who are already in the UK, or just those arriving in future. The question is a matter of internal government debate.
The CSRI’s analysis challenges claims from Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, that granting ILR to people who have arrived in the UK since 2021 would cost taxpayers billions of pounds.
Farage has pledged to entirely abolish ILR and require those who have obtained it to apply for visas if his party wins the next election. He has argued that people due to become eligible for ILR between 2026 and 2030 tend to be young and low-skilled and will be “a huge burden on the state” by claiming benefits.
Asked if his policy applied to Hongkongers who have arrived under the government’s dedicated route, Farage indicated that it would. On Monday, he said: “800,000 people are due to qualify for indefinite leave to remain over the course of the next few years. This press conference is to say none of them will get it.”
Hongkongers with BNO visas have no recourse to public funds which means they are denied access to most benefits, though they become eligible for support once granted ILR.
The average Hongkonger has £26,376 worth of pension savings in the former British territory’s Mandatory Provident Fund Authority, according to official figures. Once they have permanently resettled abroad, Hongkongers have the right under Chinese law to withdraw and move their pension savings.
As of 2021, the authorities in Hong Kong do not recognise BNO passports as either a valid travel document or as proof of permanent resettlement. The change was seen as retaliation for the UK opening a visa route for Hongkongers.
There have been warnings that the authorities in Hong Kong are utilising national security laws to freeze the assets of pro-democracy activists who have moved abroad, with several high-profile exiles finding themselves unable to access their pension savings.
The CSRI said its analysis showed that allowing Hongkongers the right to reside permanently in Britain after five years had “a significant economic rationale”.
Sam Goodman, the senior policy director at the thinktank, said: “Hongkongers who have come to the UK under the BNO visa scheme have already brought billions of pounds to the UK economy.
“Our analysis shows that if the UK pathway for permanent residency remains unchanged for those Hongkongers already here, they could bring a further £4bn by the end of the parliament.
“There is not only a strong moral case for the UK to keep its word to those who are already in the UK under various visa schemes awaiting permanent residency, but in the case of Hongkongers, a significant economic rationale as well.”
A Home Office spokesperson said: “We remain steadfast in our support for the Hong Kong community in the UK and the current rules for settlement under the British national (overseas) route continue to apply. Further details of all measures announced in the immigration white paper will be set out in due course.”
