Good morning. Parliament has returned from its summer recess. MPs are filing back into those hallowed halls to resume the business of running the country. Have you missed them? Judging by polling on trust in politicians, the answer from many of you is likely a resounding no.
For most MPs, the summer recess is a chance to pause and reset. Not so for Reform UK. The insurgent party, which has just four MPs, spent the summer working the country like it was in the middle of a general election campaign. It has been hard to escape Nigel Farage (pictured top) and Reform: the party has held at least five press conferences since recess began (with another scheduled for today). There has also been a flurry of statements and open letters, and record-breaking polling to top it all off. Reform returns to parliament riding high.
The ball is now in Labour’s court. With a packed autumn schedule, the government has an opportunity to reset the news cycle and seize the political agenda. But, just because it can, does not mean that it will.
Labour has been widely criticised for failing to articulate a message that cuts through in its first year in power. Can that change this autumn? What challenges lie ahead and where might the party finally break through? To explore all this and more, I spoke to the Guardian’s political editor, Pippa Crerar. That’s after the headlines.
Five big stories
Afghanistan | At least 250 people were dead and hundreds more injured in a magnitude 6 earthquake that struck eastern Afghanistan near the Pakistan border. The quake was centred 27km north-east of the city of Jalalabad.
Israel-Gaza war | Israeli airstrikes and gunfire killed at least 18 people in and around Gaza City, local health authorities said, as Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet prepared to discuss plans to seize the city.
Conservatives | Doubts have surfaced over Kemi Badenoch’s claim to have been offered a place at a prestigious US medical school at 16, with admissions staff unable to recall the proposal and the university not providing the course.
UK news | A police officer was allegedly punched in the face and four people were arrested at an anti-immigration protest march in London on Sunday.
Heart disease | Doctors have found a drug that is better than aspirin at preventing heart attacks and strokes, in a discovery that could transform health guidelines worldwide.
In depth: ‘Ultimately, the buck stops with the person at the top’
Labour did not head into summer recess from a position of strength. The party was forced into a humiliating retreat over its welfare reform bill after a dramatic backbench rebellion. After weeks of bruising infighting, many in Labour felt the summer break offered a chance to cool tempers and rethink. They may come to regret that.
“They could have managed to allow everyone a break without vacating the public arena for Reform and they may rue the day that they allowed Reform to set the agenda,” Pippa Crerar told me. “It makes it harder now to refute the claims that they don’t have a grip on migration and it means that they have to think quite carefully about how to get back on to the front foot.”
Still, the Labour government is determined to wrest back control, and they will have plenty of opportunity to do so: with a packed autumn of domestic challenges and international crises, the public will be looking to hear directly from those in power.
“Whether they managed to get the positive message that they want to get across is a totally different question and obviously a much harder feat. People I’ve spoken to in Downing Street and in government suggest that they understand they need to do that, and there’s a degree of frustration that delivery’s not fast enough and the messaging isn’t coherent enough,” Pippa said.
There has been a flurry of reports that Keir Starmer (pictured above) is preparing a minor reshuffle of his government, alongside changes to his Downing Street team.
“Ultimately, the buck stops with the person at the top,” Pippa said. “And if the person at the top isn’t able to articulate why they want to be in government and what they want to achieve in a way that resonates with ordinary people, it’s a struggle.”
So what problems lie ahead for the government, at home and on the international stage?
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The domestic challenges …
Recent polling makes for an uncomfortable read for Labour supporters. The party enjoyed little in the way of a honeymoon period, with figures showing its ratings have fallen further in the first 10 months of government than those of any other party in modern history.
But Pippa told me that the polling, which has been brutal for the Conservatives as well, shows widespread discontent with mainstream politics generally.
“Reform is doing so well because it capitalises on that discontent, it becomes a vehicle for the disillusionment which many people have in the mainstream political parties,” Pippa said. “And Farage is an extraordinary communicator who manages to tap into people’s fears, just as he did with Brexit, to provide answers that I would argue exacerbates them, particularly with migration.”
On migration, Labour are breathing a sigh of relief to have won an appeal to continue using hotels to house asylums seekers, but the fight is far from over. The party are working to reduce the asylum backlog, having announced their agreement of a one in, one out deal with the French, but it’s slow work, Pippa explained. For MPs in marginal seats, particularly around the “red wall”, they fear migration is the issue that could cost them unless the government is tougher.
The European convention on human rights (ECHR) is the new battleground, with Farage describing it as such. “Downing Street has made it absolutely clear that the UK was not going to leave the ECHR, because it would be hugely problematic for things like trade deals and, crucially, the Good Friday agreement,” Pippa said. But the government has announced a review of article 8 (respect for your private and family life) of the EHRC and possibly article 3 (protecting you from torture and inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment), as there are arguments that their scope is too wide and they are preventing the deportation of convicted foreign criminals.
There’s a broader debate on whether the UK should work with European Union member states on more general reforms of the ECHR as a whole.
The other big domestic challenge is the economy. “Rachel Reeves is ending the summer in a worse position than she started,” Pippa said, with inflation remaining high, many still struggling with the cost of living crisis, and the Office for Budget Responsibility now thinking of revising its forecast in light of an outdated measure of productivity.
“The problem it creates for Reeves, and the reason I think we are likely to see the budget potentially pushed back into November from October, is that they’re trying to work out the communications on it. They have boxed themselves in. They said that they are not going to borrow any more and they said that they don’t want to be a government that cuts spending. Well, that only leaves them with tax rises,” Pippa said.
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… And the international upheavals
The problem for Starmer is that his international popularity isn’t translating much domestically. But why is his reputation better among international audiences? Pippa told me Starmer has built a reputation for being effective in difficult situations with international partners.
“The big international moment coming up in the next month is Donald Trump’s state visit. And, as we saw when Trump was on a holiday in Scotland, he has this capacity to whirl into town and stir everything up and then disappear again. He’s a very unpredictable president,” Pippa said.
Despite Trump’s promises to end the war in Ukraine, Russian president Vladimir Putin has continued ordering attacks (including a deadly assault on Kyiv last week). And the Alaska summit didn’t deliver what Ukraine and its European partners wanted, Pippa said.
On Gaza, Starmer has promised to recognise Palestine as a state, after being urged to do so by his cabinet and the wider Labour movement. But as the devastation continues in Gaza and the siege is tightened across the rest of the occupied Palestinian territories, pressure grows on Starmer to go further, with growing calls for further sanctions.
“They’ve already sanctioned the two far right members of Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet. We could well see more to come,” Pippa said. “The government has certainly indicated that they would be prepared to take further steps and sanction not only just politicians but also senior Israeli military, if they think that they’ve been directly responsible for some of their atrocities in Gaza.”
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An existential moment for Keir Starmer
Starmer clearly drew out the battle line when he labelled Reform as the main opposition to his government. But over the last few months there has been a real risk of Starmer being defined by Farage. So how will Labour respond?
“The big danger is that personal attacks on Farage put the spotlight on him and give him a platform. By defining him as the opposition, it cuts the Tories off at the knees, but it also risks putting Reform UK in a better position,” Pippa said. “If the government sees Reform as a potential government in waiting, then presumably the public may as well.”
And we saw this summer what happens when Farage is left unchallenged. “They will take the fight to him.,” Pippa said of Labour. But whether they do that by moving in to Reform UK’s terrain, or by managing to make the case for their own agenda based on Labour values and on what Starmer believes in will be the interesting thing to watch, she added.
The problem for voters is that many just don’t know what the PM stands for. “Starmer has struggled to articulate what he believes in, so this is an existential moment if they can’t turn the tide away from Reform UK and can’t convince people that Labour can actually deliver,” Pippa said, pointing to next May’s local elections, as well as votes in Wales and Scotland, as critical moments. And, by next summer, Labour will be halfway through its parliamentary term.
But, Pippa added, Reform’s lead in the polls does not make an election win a foregone conclusion, and Labour still have time on their side. She described Reform’s policies as vague and contradictory. While Farage has been able to capitalise on exploiting social and racial divisions, many British people may not feel comfortable with the direction he represents.
“We live in incredibly volatile times,” Pippa said, “But it does definitely still feel like there’s everything to play for for Labour”.
What else we’ve been reading
Unfortunate enough to have heard about the “performative male”, the internet’s new least favourite type of guy? Rachel Connolly has a fun take on tote-carrying, matcha-drinking tryhards: at least they’re making an effort? Charlie Lindlar, newsletters team
Can your partner be your best friend? As Polly Hudson sketches out in this column, perhaps the better question is whether they should be. Aamna
Ryan Gilbey has a deeply charming interview with Pierce Brosnan, in which the pair chat while wandering through the actor’s old London haunts. “Punk wasn’t my bailiwick,” he reveals. “I was a hippy.” Charlie
I loved this interview by Zoe Williams on Matthew Hutchinson and his struggles and triumphs as a black doctor in the NHS. Aamna
One for the parents of kids starting school this week: Stuart Heritage’s horrifying and hilarious guide to surviving parent WhatsApp groups. (Top tip from the piece: avoid posting your nudes in there.) Charlie
Sport
Football | Liverpool went top of the Premier League after a win against Arsenal thanks to a wonder strike by Dominik Szoboszlai at Anfield. Elsewhere Brajan Gruda fired a late winner to help Brighton beat Manchester City, while West Ham gained a 3-0 victory over Nottingham Forest, scoring all three goals during the final eight minutes of the game.
Formula One | Oscar Piastri won the Dutch Grand Prix and may have turned the course of the world championship after his title rival Lando Norris was forced to retire from second place just seven laps from the end.
Tennis | Carlos Alcaraz continued his supreme form in New York as he returned to the quarter-finals of the US Open with an assured performance against Arthur Rinderknech. A 25-minute tiebreaker in the second set wasn’t enough for fan favourite Taylor Townsend to overcome Barbora Krejcikova.
The front pages
The Guardian leads with “Drug ‘better than aspirin’ at preventing heart attacks”. The Times has “Leaving the ECHR ‘not a threat to Ulster peace’”. The Mirror looks ahead to the return of parliament, quoting Keir Starmer with “I’ll defeat Farage scare tactics”. The Mail reports Labour ‘civil war’ fuelling Rayner sleaze crisis”.
The Financial Times leads with “Europe laying ‘road map’ for deploying troops in Ukraine, von der Leyen says”. The Telegraph reports “Queen fought off sex attacker”, while the Sun follows the same story with “Camilla whacked groper in googlies”.
Today in Focus
Spy cameras: are you being watched?
With tiny cameras disguised as everyday objects freely available, Anna Moore looks at the sinister ways they can be used – and the worrying rise in voyeurism cases in the UK.
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
In this extract from his latest book, Michael Rosen reflects on finding hope and meaning in hard times. He argues that we live only in the present day, so to endure difficulties we must focus on small strategies that make days worthwhile. One way to make the days full of joy is through playful experimentation – like mixing ice-cream with sultanas – as a way of slowing down and noticing life. He stresses the importance of rest and music, which offers moments of the sublime that go beyond words.
He also confronts death, reflecting on the loss of his son Eddie; reconnecting with Eddie’s friends has brought him new opportunities for healing. Rosen believes we can still find good days amid hardship: “We have to have hope. We need to be hopeful creatures in order to live.”
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
