Andrew Sparrow 

UK politics: Creasy leaves open chance of Labour deputy leadership bid and calls for Palestine Action law change – as it happened

The MP said police should be focusing on people who are members of the group, not those who ‘recklessly express support’ for it
  
  

Stella Creasy said the present situation, with hundreds arrested for holding up banners, was ‘not sustainable’
Stella Creasy said the present situation, with hundreds arrested for holding up banners, was ‘not sustainable’ Photograph: PRU/AFP/Getty Images

Early evening summary

  • Keir Starmer has reportedly told a private meeting of Labour MPs that the government will “fight with everything we’ve got” to oppose Nigel Farage, Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch. The meeting is still taking place, and a fuller briefing will be available later. Starmer also praised Angela Rayner for what she achieved with the employment rights bill.

  • The Labour MP Stella Creasy, who has not ruled out running for the deputy leadership, has urged the government to get rid of the law making it an offence to “recklessly express support for a proscribed organisation”. (See 4.34pm.)

Updated

Dawn Butler has told Sky News that she is not interested in becoming Labour’s deputy leader. She is more interested in becoming mayor of London, she said.

Lucy Powell, who was leader of the Commons until she was sacked on Friday, is an early frontrunner in the contest to be Labour’s next deputy leader, Kitty Donaldson from the i reports.

NEW: As of this evening, support in the Labour deputy leadership race is coalescing around Lucy Powell, the Cabinet minister sacked by Sir Keir Starmer on Friday

Labour MP: “Everybody is currently testing the waters. Obviously, you’ve got some of the people everyone’s known about already. So, Lou Haigh, Lucy Powell, Emily Thornbury, and Rosena Allin-Khan...” BUT

“There’s a broad consensus it’s got to be a northern woman. As northerners, the people out ahead with the Parliamentary Labour Party are Lucy and Lou, and I would think that from those two, Lucy wins.”

Keir Starmer is addressing Labour MPs in the Commons at a private meeting of the PLP.

John McTernan, who was political secretary in No 10 to Tony Blair, told Radio 4’s PM programme that he did not think the deputy leadership election would be a proxy leadership election. Instead, it would be about finding “a very strong figure who can speak to and for and on behalf of the party”. He said he thought Alison McGovern would be a “perfect” candidate for that role. (See 3.49pm.)

Windsor framework trading rules create 'bureaucracy for bureaucracy's sake', Northern Ireland's deputy FM says

Stormont’s deputy first minister has called on the government to act over the Windsor Framework’s “bureaucracy for bureaucracy sake”, PA Media reports.

The DUP’s Emma Little-Pengelly said some companies will not supply to Northern Ireland because they do not understand the rules put in place following the UK’s exit from the European Union.

The Windsor framework, which was agreed in 2023, requires checks and customs paperwork on goods moving from Great Britain into Northern Ireland. Under the arrangements, which were designed to ensure no hardening of the Irish land border post-Brexit, Northern Ireland continues to follow many EU trade and customs rules.

Little-Pengelly told the Northern Ireland assembly today there is currently “very little regulatory divergence”, but despite that she said there is “unnecessary checking at the behest of the deal”.

As an example, she cited the experience of a man she called Roy from Mid-Ulster who was trying to bring a tractor from Scotland to Northern Ireland.

He was requiring four certificates. He couldn’t give the haulage company a specific date as to when he was to get that, and therefore he missed that window and those tractors were stuck in Scotland for four to six weeks despite being paid in full, despite the fact that Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom.

That is not acceptable. It is bureaucracy for bureaucracy’s sake. We need to tackle that.

The biggest frustration that people have about governments – should it be here, across the United Kingdom or across the globe – is the fact that it’s so difficult to get things sorted because of this unnecessary, disproportionate, non-risk based nonsense that people are putting in place. They need to get rid of it. It doesn’t serve any purpose. Get it sorted.

Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, is definitely not running to be Labour’s deputy leader, Pippa Crerar reports.

Lisa Nandy has ruled herself out from running for deputy leader of the Labour party. Despite speculation, I’m told it was never her plan to do so, and she remains fully focused on her role as Culture Secretary.

Bell Ribeiro-Addy, a Labour MP on the left of the party, has joined those saying the timetable for the Labour deputy leadership contest is too short. In a message on social media she said:

There is a clear attempt underway to rush the deputy leadership contest.

After the missteps of the past year, we need a proper debate about the future direction of our party; not a coronation.

It must be a full and fair contest with a genuine Left candidate on the ballot paper.

Security minister Dan Jarvis says it would have been 'highly irresponsible' to ignore expert advice about proscribing Palestine Action

Dan Jarvis, the security minister, told MPs that it would have been “highly irresponsible” for the government to have ignored expert advice saying Palestine Action should be proscribed.

Responding to the urgent question tabled by Stella Creasy (see 4.34pm), Jarvis said advice given to the Home Office said the group had met tests to be banned under the Terrorism Act 2000. He went on:

These are not the actions of a legitimate protest group. And for a government to ignore expert security assessments, advice and recommendations, would be highly irresponsible.

Were there to be further serious attacks or injuries, there would rightly be questions asked about why action had not been taken.

Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said the Conservatives “fully support, unequivocally, the right to peaceful protest”, but that violence is “never acceptable”.

The Labour MP Markus Campbell-Savours asked why arrests were not stopped – as he said he believed that the convictions for displaying proscribed group’s names were “extremely rare”. Jarvis said decisions were down to police judgments made under pressure.

Peter Walker has written mini profiles of some of the potential Labour deputy leadership candidates.

Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, Emily Thornberry, the chair of the foreign affairs committee, Rosena Allin-Khan, the Tooting MP who resigned from a shadow cabinet job before the election, Anneliese Dodds, the former international development minister, Sarah Owen, chair of the women and equalities committee and Alison McGovern, the local government minister, are all seeking nominations for the deputy Labour leadership election, or have got people doing it on their behalf, Aubrey Allegretti from the Times reports.

Of these, Allin-Khan would be probably be the most problematic for No 10. She lost her role as a trade envoy after voting against the government on welfare reform in July. But she was runner up to Angela Rayner in the contest in 2020, which should make her a strong candidate if she can get enough support to get her name on the ballot paper.

Richard Burgon has said the Labour leadership will “move heaven and earth” to stop a leftwing candidate being on the ballot for deputy leader. In an interview with the Left Foot Forward website, Burgon, a leading figure on the Labour left, said:

They don’t want Gaza on the ballot paper. They don’t want the winter fuel payment cuts on the ballot paper. They don’t want disability benefit cuts on the ballot paper …

I think it will be very hard for a left candidate to get on the ballot paper. And the reason for that is because the leadership are making it deliberately very difficult for a left candidate to get on the ballot.

Streeting says cross-party talks on reforming adult social care have started

The long-promised cross-party talks on reforming the adult social care system have started, Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has announced.

In a statement today, he said:

There’s still a long way to go to guarantee dignified care for all. Our ageing society demands fundamental reform in social care which why the prime minister appointed Baroness Louise Casey to lead an independent commission on adult social care and build consensus for a new National Care Service fit for the 21st century.

I thank Baroness Casey for arranging today’s meeting, and to cross-party representatives for putting politics aside to find a way forward. I am determined that this government will build a National Care Service worthy of the name.

The cross-party talks were meant to start in February, but the process was held up after Casey, who is reviewing social care for the government, was asked to carry out an audit of grooming gang investigations.

Stella Creasy suggests government should scrap law making it offence to express support for proscribed organisation

The Labour MP Stella Creasy has urged the government to get rid of the law making it an offence to “recklessly express support for a proscribed organisation”.

In a Commons urgent question, triggered by the arrest of almost 900 people in London on Saturday for protesting against the decision to proscribe Palestine Action as a terrorist organisation, she said she thought the current law was flawed.

Under the Terrorism Act, once an organisation is proscribed, it is not just illegal to be a member; just expressing support for it is an offence.

Creasy said she was not speaking as a supporter of Palestine Action, and she said the case to act against them was “strong” because of their use of violence.

But she said the current situation, which has led to hundreds of people being arrested for holding up banners saying the support Palestine Action, was “just not sustainable”. She explained:

There is a difference between people protesting using violence and people protesting the use of proscription.

If we don’t get right the response, if we continue to arrest those in that second category, the seriousness the term terrorism risks losing its meaning, becoming diluted rather than strengthened.

Proscription was supposedly about stopping those inciting direct harm and violence.

Going after somebody with a poster testing the boundaries of liberty – many of whom are clear they don’t support Palestine Action and feel strongly about Palestinian rights or free speech – confuses rather than clarifies the government’s intention ..

Legislation on public order focuses on specific acts. Proscription orders target specific terrorist groups. Nothing sits in between this.

Creasy said the police should be focusing on people who actually are members of Palestine Action. If the government was not willing to abolish the offence of recklessly expressing support for a proscribed group, it should at least give the police guidance on when the offence should be used, she said.

In response, Dan Jarvis, the security minister, cited a recent Observer article by Jonathan Hall KC, the government’s independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, in which he defended the use of the legislation against Palestine Action. Hall said:

There is no way ordinary criminal law would be effective against funding, training and recruitment [by Palestine Action] …

The motives of those who say “I support Palestine Action” are not always easy to discern. Rather than saying “I support Palestine” or “I oppose the proscription of Palestine Action”, a small number of demonstrators have gone out of their way to invite arrest. I am not sure that this makes the law ridiculous or heavy-handed.

Shorn of the power to arrest and prosecute those who display support in public, the police’s role in preventing the growth and operation of Palestine Action would be that much harder.

Jarvis quote an extract from the article and said the government had a duty to ensure public safety.

Earlier today Creasy did not rule out standing to be Labour’s deputy leader. (See 1.50pm.)

Updated

Barry Gardiner, a prominent member of Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow cabinet, is not running to be Labour’s deputy leader, he told Radio 5 Live’s Matt Chorley. Chorley probably was not very surprised. But Gardiner said he wanted the job to go to someone “robust enough to actually say to the cabinet when they feel the cabinet is out of step with the majority of MPs, and effective enough to turn round policies that actually are doomed”.

Neal Lawson, director of the Compass, a group promoting progressive pluralism, told the World at One that the backbencher Clive Lewis, the former transport secretary Louise Haigh and the former leader of the Commons Lucy Powell (sacked in the reshuffle on Friday) would all be good candidates for deputy Labour leader. He explained:

The heart and soul of the Labour party is being turned in a direction by, I think, quite a small, right-wing clique of people. The platform that [Keir] Starmer stood on was that platform of ‘radical realism’ and then they rejected it all …

I think the deputy leader should [be] not a chum of the prime minister but the champion of the party and those radical policies which would move us away from disaster.

I think there’s a number of names which have been thrown into the hat which meet that criteria. Whether that’s Clive Lewis, Lou Haigh, Lucy Powell, there’s a number which would begin to turn the situation around.

The most important thing is not changing the deck chairs on the Titanic. It’s steering the Titanic away from the glaciers of Farage.

Lawson was giving an interview to promote Mainstream, the new centre-left group that Compass supports.

Alison McGovern, the new local government minister, is the only government minister currently seen as a likely candidate for Labour deputy leader, Patrick Maguire from the Times reports.

Alison McGovern emerging as a plausible candidate for the deputy Labour leadership – and thus far only minister being spoken of as a contender

She is being encouraged to run by fellow MPs and me and @breeallegretti hear soundings are being taken...

In their story, Maguire and Aubrey Allegretti say that McGovern and Anneliese Dodds, who resigned as international development minister over aid cuts in February, are both potential candidates who would be “palatable” to No 10. They report:

McGovern is a junior minister in the housing department, having been a protégé of Gordon Brown and served as a chairwoman of Progress, the pressure group of Labour modernisers …

Dodds quit as international development minister in February over aid cuts. She was seen as a loyalist despite demotions in opposition, having been Starmer’s first shadow chancellor before serving as Labour chair for three years. Allies said her “principled resignation” and call for wealth taxes in July would endear her to the left.

Lisa Nandy ruled herself out of the running on Monday. She is one of the more left-wing members of the cabinet and a former leadership contender. Allies of the culture secretary encouraged her to run, but The Times understands she will sit out the race.

Alexander Burnett has announced that he is standing down as chief whip for the Scottish Conservatives at Holyrood. In a statement, he says he wants “to focus all my efforts on being re-elected [in the Scottish parliament elections next year] in Aberdeenshire West, where I will once again be competing head-to-head with the SNP in a tight race”. He will be replaced by Tim Eagle, who will combine being the Scottish Tories’ rural affairs spokesperson with their chief whip.

Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, has dismissed the Home Office announcement saying countries that refuse to take back refused asylum seekers could have the number of visas their citizens can get restricted. In a statement, he said the last government legislated to allow this. He said:

The power to implement visa sanctions was created by the last Conservative government in a bill which I took through parliament. It’s about time this Labour government now stopped talking tough and started acting tough.

Any country that won’t take back its own citizens who have committed a criminal offence in the UK or who have no right to be here should see visa issuance suspended. But all we get from Labour are tough words.

I urged them to immediately use the powers which the last government created some months ago, but nothing has happened.

In his statement, Philp did not explain why the previous government did not use this power.

Jess Phillips, the safeguarding minister, has ruled out standing to be Labour’s deputy leader, Kitty Donaldson from the i reports.

NEW: Labour MP Jess Phillips, touted as a possible candidate for the party’s deputy leadership, tells @theipaper she will not be standing, citing personal reasons.

Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has ruled out standing for deputy Labour leader, Sky News reports. That is no surprise. As a male, London MP, he does not meet two of the three criteria that Harriet Harman says should apply to the new deputy. (See 9.23am.) He is also relatively unpopular with party members, according to the regular LabourList membership survey. (They think he’s too rightwing.)

Keir Starmer wanted to replace Angela Rayner as housing secretary with Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, ITV’s political editor Robert Peston has claimed. But Miliband refused to move, Peston says. Steve Reed, the former environment secretary, was appointed instead.

The prime minister’s first choice to take over Angela Rayner’s housing and local government responsibilities was Ed Miliband, but he refused to leave energy and climate change. This appears to have been the one part of the reshuffle that didn’t quite go Starmer’s way.

Alison McGovern, who at the weekend was moved from being employment minister to local government minister, told TUC delegates today the government was committed to the employment rights bill.

Speaking at a conference fringe meeting, she said the bill was a “cornerstone” of Labour’s election manifesto. “Labour MPs have voted three times for it. We are committed to it,” she said.

She said details of the bill were still to be worked out, adding: “I am confident we will get to the right place that means working people have decent rights at work that supports a thriving economy.”

Starmer to meeting Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas in Downing Street

Keir Starmer is set to meet Mahmoud Abbas as the government continues steps towards recognising a Palestinian state, PA Media reports. PA says:

The meeting with the president of the Palestinian Authority this evening comes in the wake of Monday’s rush hour terror attack in Jerusalem.

Palestinian attackers opened fire on people at a bus stop, killing six and wounding another 12, according to Israeli officials.

Yvette Cooper, the new foreign secretary, said she was “horrified by the terrorist attack in Jerusalem”.

Abbas’s office issued a statement “condemning any targeting of Palestinian and Israeli civilians”.

Abbas arrived in London on Sunday night for a three-day visit.

He plans to use his talks with Starmer to push for an end to “the aggression, destruction and starvation being inflicted upon the Palestinian people”, his officials said.

Downing Street indicated that the government maintained its intention to recognise a Palestinian state later this month, ahead of the meeting of the United Nations general assembly.

The PM’s spokesperson said: “We continue to intend to recognise the state of Palestine before the UN general assembly, subject to the conditions that we set out. We’ve been very clear that Hamas will play no role in the future governance of Gaza or the West Bank, and must commit to disarmament.”

Emily Thornberry, the Labour chair of the Commons foreign affairs committee, is messaging colleagues asking for support for a possible bid for the deputy Labour leadership, the Guardian columnist and leftwing campaign Owen Jones reports in a post on social media.

Emily Thornberry is sending around her BBC appearance to ask Labour MPs to support her bid to become deputy leader.

At the start of the genocide, she refused to say Israel cutting off food, water and energy was illegal, saying it had “an absolute right to defend itself”.

He has included this screenshot.

Updated

Stella Creasy declines to rule out standing for deputy Labour leader

The Labour MP Stella Creasy has declined to rule out running for deputy leader. In an interview on the World at One, asked if she would be a candidate, Creasy did not say no, and instead said she wanted to see the party have a debate about the future. “I think has happened if we are honest is that we have narrowed rather than broadened our ability to have our debates in a constructive fashion,” she said.

When it was put to her that she was not ruling out being a candidate, she said:

If it was about an individual that would be an easy answer, this is about the ideas and that culture.

I’m someone telling you that the Labour party has a cultural challenge, that if we get right we get the best out of each other. We’ve got to show ourselves over the next couple days that that is possible.

UPDATE: Here is the audio clip.

Updated

Labour confirms rapid timetable for deputy leadership contest, with nominations closing on Thursday

The Labour party has confirmed that candidates to be deputy leader will have to obtain the required backing of 80 MPs by 5pm on Thursday, when nominations will close. It has issued this timetable, which also says the winner will be announced on Saturday 25 October.

To stand, as well as being nominated by at least 20% of the PLP (ie, by 80 MPs), candidates also need to be nominated by at least 5% of constituency Labour parties (CLPs) or by at least three affiliated organisations (of which two must be trade unions) comprising at least 5% of the affiliated membership.

Updated

The Commons authorities have announced there will be two urgent questions after 3.30pm, on Palestine Action (tabled by Labour’s Stella Creasy) and on the failure to extradite the alleged 9/11 suspect Omar al-Bayoumi (tabled by the Tory David Davis, following new revelations in the Sunday Times).

After those are over, after 5pm, Luke Pollard, a defence minister, will make a statement on the defence industrial strategy.

No 10 says employment rights bill not being watered down, and anti-government amendments passed by Lords to be reversed

The resignation of Angela Rayner, and the sacking of Justin Madders as employment rights minister, have raised concerns on the left and in the union movement that the government might water down its employment rights bill.

At the Downing Street lobby briefing this morning, the PM’s spokesperson rejected this claim and said that anti-government amendments to the bill passed by the House of Lords would be reversed when the legislation returns to the Commons next week.

The spokesperson said:

We are absolutely backing the employment rights bill. We are a pro-worker, pro-business government and the workers’ rights legislation is the biggest single upgrade of workers’ rights in a generation.

It’s a manifesto commitment that we remain absolutely committed to and will continue to engage with businesses as the bill progresses through parliament, and that includes overturning the amendments that were passed in the Lords.

Starmer not expected to publicly endorse candidate in Labour's deputy leadership contest

Keir Starmer is not expected to publicly endorse a candidate for deputy leader of the Labour party.

In previous internal party elections Starmer has not endorsed candidates, party sources have said, and that is not expected to change in this contest.

Starmer is also operating on the basis that the party rules do not require the deputy leader to be offered a government job.

In response to claims that the party wants to a quick contest to disadvantage leftwing candidates, making it a “stitch-up” (see 8.52am), sources said this was premature because the national executive committee has not set a timetable yet.

(While it may be true that Starmer has not publicly endorsed candidates in internal leadership contests, that does not mean he does not have a view. In the Labour party the leader’s allies normally work overtime trying to help favoured candidates in internal contests. It is rare for the leadership to remain genuinely neutral.)

Mahmood says countries which don't help with small boat returns could face cut in number of visas issued

In a pooled interview with Sam Coates from Sky News, Shabana Mahmood, the new home secretary, offered some clues to her approach to dealing with the small boats problem. Here are the main points.

  • Mahmood said she regarded securing the borders as her “top priority” as home secretary.

  • She praised the “very strong” policy foundation left by her predecessor, Yvette Cooper, but she said that she wanted to go “further and faster” and that she would would do “whatever it takes” to secure the borders. She said:

I will be looking to go further and faster because I’m very clear I have one top priority in this job and that is to secure the borders. I will do whatever it takes.

Mahmood also said that people who had already worked with her in government knew she was “not the sort of person that hangs around”. (That might be a clue as to why Mahmood got the job; No 10 reportedly felt Cooper was too slow at taking and implementing decisions.)

  • Mahmood suggested that countries that refuse to take back refused asylum seekers from the UK could face a cut in the number of visas issued to their citizens. And she said at the Five Eyes meeting today (see 9.35am) she had been discussing how the UK could coordinate action on this front with its partners (the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand). She said:

I’ve been talking to our Five Eyes partners about what more we can do to work together to make sure that our borders are secure and that our citizens feel safe.

We think that there is interesting space for collaboration, particularly on how we deal with countries who do not take their citizens back, making sure that we are able to return out of our countries people who have no right to be in our countries and send them back to their home countries.

So, for countries that do not play ball, we’ve been talking about how we can take much more coordinated action between the Five Eyes countries. For us, that means including possibly the cutting of visas in the future.

Updated

Mahmood rules out being candidate for deputy Labour leader

Shabana Mahmood, the new home secretary, has told Sky News she “will not be running for deputy leader of the Labour party”.

That is no great surprise, given that she has just taken on arguably the most demanding job in the cabinet, but it does mean journalists can remove her name from the runners and riders lists.

Mahmood was speaking in a short interview about small boats. I will post those comments shortly.

Updated

TUC leader Paul Nowak says Labour has not yet made 'change' it promised a 'lived reality' for people

Paul Nowak, the TUC general secretary, also used his speech to the conference to urge the government to be bolder. People did not feel it was delivering change, he said.

Last July the government was elected on a manifesto that promised change. But we have to be honest; for too many people, change still feels like a slogan – not a lived reality. That cannot continue.

Nowak urged the government to show that it was on the side of working people.

My message to the government is simply this – deliver the manifesto on which you won a huge majority last July. Deliver good jobs, decent public services and better living standards in every corner of the country. Deliver the change people voted for and show working-class communities whose side you are on.

He also called for the two-child benefit cap to be lifted, as well as a windfall tax on bank profits and gambling companies and new taxes on wealth.

If billionaires can afford fleets of private yachts, day trips into space, weddings that shut down Venice, they can pay a bit more tax.

And make it clear – a Labour government will never stand aside and watch a child’s potential be wasted because of poverty. Lift the two-child cap and give our kids the future they deserve.

TUC leader describes Reform UK as 'rightwing conmen', and condemns 'inner ugliness' of 'xenophobe' Robert Jenrick

Paul Nowak, the TUC general secretary, used his speech to conference this morning to say that the TUC expected the government to deliver its workers’ rights bill “in full”. He said employment rights were “overwhelmingly popular with voters across the political spectrum”.

And he condemned Reform UK for its stance on employment rights. After saying that Nigel Farage claimed to represent working class people, he went on:

Here’s the truth – there is a world of difference between what Nigel says and what Nigel does.

Every single Reform MP, including Mr Farage, voted against outlawing fire and rehire, against banning zero hours contracts and against day one rights for millions of workers.

So here’s my challenge to Nigel Farage. Say you stand up for working people? Then ignore your wealthy backers and vote for that employment rights bill.

Say you’re standing up for British industry? Then stop supporting Donald Trump and his destructive tariffs.

And say you believe in the NHS? Then look the British public in the eye and tell them why you support a US-style private healthcare system.

Nigel Farage, it is about time you came clean about whose side you’re really on, because here’s the truth – you are not representing working people, you are selling them out.

Addressing those considering voting Reform, Nowak said he understood why they were frustrated with mainstream politics. But he went on:

Ask yourself this fundamental question. Do you believe in your gut that that Nigel Farage really cares about the people of Clacton when he’s off collecting his speaker’s fees in the United States?

Do you believe that Richard Tice really worries about the people of Skegness while he’s living it up at home in Dubai, or are they just rightwing conmen lining their own pockets?

(Tice does not live in Dubai, but his partner, the journalist Isabel Oakeshott, does, and he says he visits her there every few weeks.)

Nowak devoted much more time in his speech to attacking Reform UK than he did to criticising the Conservatives. He said that the Tory party “loses credibility with every single day” and he did not mention Kemi Badenoch, the party leader. But he did launch a strong attack on Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, who is widely seen as a likely replacement to Badenoch and who is now advocating policies that are even more extreme than Farage’s. Nowak said:

I just have to say this. No amount of TikToks, or ozempic, or expensive haircuts, will ever hide the eager inner ugliness of Robert Jenrick.

The man who ordered murals painted over in a reception centre for children seeking asylum is indeed a xenophobe, an opportunistic xenophobe hoping to create a political climate that ends up with far right folks laying siege to hotels and black and Asian people being threatened and harassed on our streets.

Updated

Migration expert says there's 'increasing evidence of Brexit effect' leading to small boat arrival numbers going up

Aside from the need to replace Angela Rayner, it seems the key aim of last week’s cabinet reshuffe was Keir Starmer’s desire to replace Yvette Cooper as home secretary with Shabana Mahmood. Starmer reportedly thinks she will adopt a more muscular approach to addressing the small boats problem.

With this in mind, the Today programme broadcast an interview early this morning with Peter Walsh, a senior researcher at the Migration Observatory, an Oxford University migration thinktank. When asked to explain why the small boat arrival numbers are at a record level, Walsh said Brexit was one factor. He explained:

If we look at the powerful geopolitical push factors, they’re things like regime change. We think Afghanistan, war, civil conflict. And when we look at people crossing in small boats, where do they come from? Well, the top nationalities: Afghan, Eritrea, Iranian, Syrian, Sudanese – just those five nationalities account for almost two thirds of all small boat arrivals, and these individuals are from some of the most chaotic parts of the world.

But there are also some pull factors, and the question is, why not claim asylum in France, why come to the UK? A number of reasons recur there when we speak with asylum seekers. It’s the presence of family members, the English language.

But there’s also increasing evidence of a Brexit effect. We speak with asylum seekers now, and often they’ve claimed asylum in the EU country, sometimes been refused, but they understand that because the UK is no longer a part of the EU, and no longer party to the EU’s fingerprint database for asylum seekers, if they can get to the UK, they have another bite of the cherry and another chance to secure asylum status and remain in Europe.

Walsh said, that for people like this, if the UK was still in the EU their chances of being granted asylum here would be “much diminished”. He said:

In those circumstances, typically, flagged upon the system, the UK government would be able to issue a speedy refuse refusal and try and effect removal.

As it is, people arrive, we don’t have that record, so we don’t know who they are.

And also, even if we were [in that database], we wouldn’t be able to return them, because we’re no longer party to that Dublin system that allowed for the transfer of asylum seekers back to countries of first entry.

Updated

Dawn Butler, who like Richard Burgon (see 8.52am) was also a candidate in the 2020 deputy leadership contest, has posted this on social media hinting she is still interested.

Haigh attacks 'unaccountable orthodoxy' of OBR, as she says Labour not giving UK 'full transformation' it needs

Here is a summary of the main points in Louise Haigh’s New Statesman article published today under the heading “The fiscal straighjacket facing Labour must be broken”. (See 8.52am.) Although Haigh includes a line saying Labour should be “shouting from the rooftops” about its achievements, the article is mostly a critique of Rachel Reeves’s fiscal orthodoxy, combined with a general call for more radicalism from the government.

  • Haigh criticised the government for failing to offer the “full transformation” Britain needed. She said:

Labour was elected in 2024 to rebuild Britain – not to steady the ship, but to remake it completely.

This is an implicit criticism not just of Keir Starmer’s record, but of his election strategy too. Starmer promised “change”, but he also defined change in terms of economic stability, which he described as an improvement on Tory chaos.

  • Haigh said Labour should be more radical, and less deferential to institutions. She said:

One year on, our mission of renewal is under threat. Economic circumstances and excessive deference to independent institutions are frustrating the democratic demand for change …

Yet the damage wasn’t just financial. It was institutional. The Conservatives embedded a model of governance where opaque watchdogs outrank democratic choice. Labour now runs the risk of exacerbating these issues.

Many Labour members would agree. But this also echoes arguments deployed by Reform UK.

  • Haigh criticised the “unaccountable orthodoxy” of the Office for Budget Responsibility and its impact on economic decision making. She said:

Originally created to provide an independent check on economic forecasts and help policymaking, [the OBR] has morphed into a gatekeeper of orthodoxy. Its models often underestimate the long-term returns of public investment and ignore the wider benefits of progressive taxation or public ownership.

We now know that Sure Start centres, for example, delivered £2 of savings for every pound spent – yet their closure under Osborne was never flagged as a fiscal risk. Nor does the OBR’s sustainability report warn that childhood poverty today will mean higher costs tomorrow.

Worse, its forecasting cycle entrenches short-termism: two fiscal events a year, judged against a five-year horizon. We plan defence, housing, and climate investment in decades, yet the watchdog looks only five years ahead. In my view, the OBR should publish supplementary long-term assessments so markets can see the real savings from social investment. Without that, governments are forced into short-term fixes even though the bond market itself takes a longer view.

Haigh suggested part of the reason for the failure of the government’s Pip reforms was the inability of the OBR to make allowance for the proposed policies producing savings over the long term. And she also criticised the accuracy of OBR forecasts (a complaint also made regularly by the Tories).

  • Haigh said the OBR should revise its growth forecasts only once a year, not twice a year as it is required to do now under law passed by the Tories. She said this would “give ministers the space to design serious, long-term reforms – not scramble for short-term fixes to meet arbitrary fiscal targets”. It is thought that Starmer thinks this too. But the government has been nervous about changing the way the OBR operates in case that gets interpreted as a weakening of fiscal discipline.

  • Haigh criticised the “quantitive tightening” policy being followed by the Bank of England. She said this was a result of the way George Osborne introduced quantitive easing when he was chancellor. The IPPR, a leftwing thinktank, has made the same argument.

  • Haigh said the Bank of England should stop paying interest on central bank reserves to commercial lenders. She said:

It is beyond comprehension that we have not already reformed our approach to the payment of interest on reserves held in the Bank of England reserves. Commercial banks are earning near-Bank Rate on hundreds of billions in deposits costing the taxpayer roughly £40bn a year.

This is a view shared by various economists, and Reform UK has been making this argument for at least a year. Richard Tice, the party’s deputy leader, is due to discuss the issue with the Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, at a meeting soon.

Zack Polanski, the new, leftwing leader of the Green party, will be speaking at the TUC conference, later today, Sky News reports.

Severin Carrell is the Guardian’s Scotland editor.

Ian Murray, the former Scotland secretary unceremoniously sacked by Keir Starmer on Friday, is back in government after an apparent revolt by his Scottish Labour allies and backbench MPs.

Murray, said to be “furious” about his sacking, was unexpectedly made a junior minister in both the Department for Culture, Media and Sport and the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology on Saturday night, as Starmer’s reshuffle continued.

On Sunday, Douglas Alexander, his replacement in the Scotland Office, spoke to Murray’s popularity in an interview with BBC Scotland when he was asked about his colleague’s sacking.

He nodded at Murray’s survival as the Labour’s only Scottish MP following the rout in the 2015 general election at the hands of the Scottish National party – when Alexander lost his previous seat of Paisley and Renfrewshire South. He said:

I’m somewhat biased. He’s both a friend as well as a colleague. I’ve campaigned with him, for him, and we owe him, as the Labour movement in Scotland, an immense debt of gratitude. In 2015, in the immediate aftermath after the referendum, he literally kept the flag flying for Scottish Labour in the really tough times. He showed extraordinary resilience as well as abilities, and in that sense I’m delighted that he’s back in government.

Alexander confirmed he would be playing a senior role in Scottish Labour’s campaign to oust the SNP from power in next May’s Holyrood election as a deputy campaign chair alongside Jackie Baillie, the Scottish party’s deputy leader.

It is widely thought Alexander was brought in to help rescue the party: recent opinion polls show its support is plummeting, with Reform UK nearly level, very largely due to Labour’s unpopularity at UK level.

Alexander told the Sunday Show on BBC Scotland his job was to help defeat the SNP.

Our responsibility in the coming months is to do what we did just a couple of weeks ago in Barrhead [winning a council byelection], do what we did a couple of months ago in Hamilton [winning a Holyrood byelection], which is to take our case to the Scottish public and then disprove the critics and the cynics.

Challenged about the polls suggesting the SNP only a few seats short of winning an overall majority at Holyrood in May, which the SNP argues would be a mandate for a second referendum, Alexander said:

To continue the earlier football analogy, I’m not really going to engage in post-match analysis when the game hasn’t even begun, never mind finished.

I’m not really interested in anticipating our defeat as Scottish Labour. I’m way more interested in contributing to Scottish Labour’s victory. And that’s what each and every one of my colleagues as Scottish representatives at Westminster for the Labour party, and indeed my friends and colleagues in Holyrood are determined to deliver between now and May.

Updated

New home secretary Shabana Mahmood chairs meeting of Five Eyes security alliance

Shabana Mahmood has met counterparts from the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance for talks on international efforts to tackle smuggling gangs, PA Media reports. PA says:

In her first major engagement as home secretary,Mahmood hosted counterparts from the US, Australia, Canada and New Zealand in London after the number of small boat crossings reached more than 30,000 in 2025.

Ministers are examining using military bases to house asylum seekers in “temporary but adequate” accommodation as Sir Keir Starmer tries to get a grip on the migrants crisis.

Some 1,097 people arrived in the UK in 17 boats on Saturday, bringing the total in 2025 so far to 30,100 – a record for this point in a year.

The figure is 37% up on this point last year (22,028) and also 37% higher than at this stage in 2023 (21,918), according to PA news agency analysis.

Mahmood said the numbers were “utterly unacceptable” and that she expected migrant returns under a deal agreed last month with France to begin “imminently”.

Ahead of Monday’s meeting, she said the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing pact would “agree new measures to protect our border, hitting people smugglers hard”.

She was joined at the talks by US secretary of homeland security Kristi Noem, Canadian public safety minister Gary Anandasangaree, Australian home affairs minister Tony Burke and New Zealand minister Judith Collins.

The group was also discussing new measures to tackle child sexual abuse online and the spread of deadly synthetic opioids.

Labour must improve workers’ rights to fulfil promise to voters, says Unite’s Sharon Graham

Unite’s general secretary, Sharon Graham, has issued a warning to the government, saying it should enact full reforms of workers’ rights in order to fulfil a “promise to the British people”, Jessica Elgot reports.

Labour's new deputy leader should be a woman, not from London, and not 'oppositional', Harriet Harman says

Harriet Harman, who served as deputy Labour leader under Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband (although Brown never made her deputy PM), has said the party should not let the deputy leadership contest become a debate about the case for a “new direction”. She was speaking in an interview on the Today programme. Here are are main points.

  • Harman said Labour should not elect a deputy leader who would become an “oppositional voice”. She said:

An election for the deputy leadership when Labour is in government, just shortly after our first year of government, is very different than a deputy leadership election when you’re trying to set out a new direction for the party, rebuild the party after an election defeat.

And what I think we need is … somebody who is not a counterpoint to the leader, but is complementary to the leader, will broaden the reach of the leader and galvanise the party …

The role of the deputy leader is not to provide an alternative, oppositional voice. It’s to be part of a team. The clue is in the name.

  • She said she was in favour of Labour getting on with the contest “rapidly”.

  • She said the new deputy leader should definitely be a woman, and probably an MP from outside London. She explained:

I think that, in terms of extending the breadth of the leadership, it probably needs to be somebody from outside London, and it definitely needs to be a woman. But there are 185 Labour women MPs, many very talented …

With a prime minister and a deputy prime minister representing London constituencies, the party might well think that the extending of the reach that the deputy provides should be somebody from outside London, but definitely a woman. I don’t think we can have a male prime minister, a man as deputy prime minister and a male deputy leader of the party.

If Labour MPs agree with Harman, and they want a deputy leader loyal to Keir Starmer, then Shabana Mahmood, the new home secretary, Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, and Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, would all fit the bill. But they have all got quite important jobs already, and so may not be interested.

Non-cabinet ministers who would meet the Harmen criteria include Jess Phillips and Alison McGovern.

Updated

Labour accused of 'stitch-up' over deputy leadership contest, as Louise Haigh joins debate with call for 'economic reset'

Good morning. The Labour party has had 18 deputy leaders in its history, but only two of them have also served as deputy PM and one of those, Angela Rayner, resigned last week. In the reshuffle that started on Friday, Keir Starmer in effect decoupled those posts, appointing David Lammy as deputy PM (as well as justice secretary). Labour said there would be an election for a new deputy leader to replace Rayner and today the timetable for that election will be set. There is no guarantee that the winner will even have a job in government.

Elections are, by definition, divisive, and the easiest option for Keir Starmer would be for Labour MPs to coalesce behind one consensus candidate. Under the rules, an MP needs the support of 20% of the PLP (80 MPs) to be nominated and so it is possible that this could happen. Anyone perceived as a “rebel” candidate might struggle to reach this threshold. Ministers, and cabinet ministers, are free to enter the contest. If Lammy were to stand, and win, he could re-unite the deputy PM and deputy leader jobs, but there is a strong sense in the party that the deputy leader should be a woman, and should represent a seat outside London, and Lammy does not seem interested anyway. At this point there is no obvious favourite, but Annabelle Dickson and Bethany Dawson have a good guide to potential candidates in their London Playbook for Politico.

Already, there is a row about process. Here are the key developments this morning.

  • Deputy leadership candidates will only have four days to collect the 80 MP nominations they need, it is being reported. Labour’s national executive committee will reportedly set 5pm on Thursday as the deadline for nominations, with the ballot taking place between 8 and 23 October – with the election over well before the budget, which is taking place on 26 November.

  • Richard Burgon, one of the leading figures in the leftwing Socialist Campaign group in parliament, and a candidate for deputy leader in 2020, has accused the party of a stitch-up. In a post on social media last night, he said:

I’ve been warning about attempts to fix the deputy leadership election – and what I’ve heard is now being proposed is the mother of all stitch-ups. Just a couple of days to secure MPs’ nominations!

This is a desperate move to keep Labour members’ voices out of this race and to dodge serious discussion on what’s gone wrong over the last year – from the positions on disability benefits cuts, on winter fuel payments, on Gaza and more. This outrageous timetable shows a leadership that’s unwilling to listen and to learn the lessons needed if we’re to rebuild support and stop Nigel Farage.

  • Louise Haigh, the former transport secretary and a potential candidate for the deputy leadership, has published on the New Statesman’s website what amounts to a pitch for the job, demanding “an economic reset” and “a decisive break with the fiscal rules and institutional constraints that hold back renewal”. It is a serious intervention, and, by implication, a damning critique of Rachel Reeves, the chancellor. Here is an extract.

There is a democratic argument at the heart of this as well. A Labour government with a landslide majority in parliament cannot – and should not – be stopped from delivering the change we clearly set out in our manifesto simply because of assumptions made by the OBR [Office for Budget Responsibility]. If we let unelected institutions dictate the limits of change, we betray the people and communities who put their trust in us.

And if mainstream politics can’t deliver proper renewal, populists like Nigel Farage will fill the void. Britain’s economy is broken not just in outcomes but in architecture. Unless we rewrite the rules, we risk managed decline dressed up as moderation.

I am devastated by the departure of Angela Rayner last week, who consistently offered a challenge to the establishment orthodoxy. Her absence is a real loss to those of us who want to see bold, radical thinking at the heart of government. The reshuffle has been billed as a political reset, but if we are serious about delivering on our priorities, it must offer more than a change of personnel around the Cabinet table. What the country needs now is an economic reset: a decisive break with the fiscal rules and institutional constraints that hold back renewal. Only then can Labour turn its democratic mandate into the transformation Britain so urgently needs.

Haigh would have difficulty winning a deputy leadership contest, because of her resignation last year over a 10-year-old conviction relating to mobile phone fraud, but a lot of Labour members will probably agree with the argument in her New Statesman article. I will post more from it soon.

Here is the agenda for the day.

Morning: Paul Nowak, TUC general secretary, speaks at the TUC conference in Brighton. The delegates are debating motions relating to the economy and public services in the morning, and workers’ rights in the afternoon.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

Noon: Labour’s national executive committee meets to decide the timetable for the deputy leadership election.

2.30pm: John Healey, the defence secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

3pm: Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, speaks at an event to launch the children’s plan.

6pm: Starmer speaks to Labour MPs at a private meeting of the parliamentary Labour party (PLP).

And at some point today Shabana Mahmood, the new home secretary, is chairing a meeting the Five Eyes security alliance.

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Updated

 

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