At 9.30am on Monday morning, as MPs made their way back to Westminster, Keir Starmer gathered the entire staff of No 10 in the Pillared Room of Downing Street to tell them they were about to enter the next, delivery stage of government.
“We go into phase two in good spirits, confident and with conviction,” he told them, as some of those gathered shuffled awkwardly. His remarks, after all, followed a difficult summer during which Labour vacated the pitch to Reform UK and ahead of what is likely to be an even more turbulent autumn.
With Starmer desperately needing to show he could get a grip on government, the rest of his big reset week could not have gone more badly. The departure of Angela Rayner as his deputy is the most serious blow yet for the already beleaguered prime minister.
In interviews, Rayner often described Starmer as “the yin to my yang”, explaining how the odd couple of British politics may not have run on a joint ticket for leader and deputy, but they were so complementary they might as well have done.
She was everything that Starmer is not. Politically intuitive. A powerful communicator. An authentic working-class voice. Savage Reform attack dog. Popular with MPs, members and unions. Party fixer. Despite a sometimes bumpy relationship, Rayner’s absence will be keenly felt.
Nobody in Labour – including Rayner herself – felt there was any other option for her than to go. Even had she not been found to have breached the ministerial code, it was untenable that a housing secretary who had failed to pay the right amount of stamp duty could stay in post.
Starmer has always been clear there would be no special treatment. “People will only believe we’re changing politics when I fire someone on the spot. If a minister – any minister – makes a serious breach of the rules, they will be out. It doesn’t matter who it is, they will be sacked,” he told his biographer Tom Baldwin before the election.
Rayner is the fifth and by far the most senior minister to be forced out of office as a result of wrongdoing since Starmer came to power. She was also the most vocal critic of the Conservatives during their many scandals. “One rule for them, one for everybody else,” she used to cry. Now that refrain is being redirected towards her.
While Labour’s attempts to prove itself more ethical than the previous administration have already been bruised by controversies including over freebies, perhaps the most serious impact of this latest row is that it will reinforce the corrosive view held by many people that all politicians are in it for themselves.
Her departure also creates an even greater political headache for Rachel Reeves as she plans her autumn budget. With the Treasury struggling to find up to £40bn to balance the books, the option of imposing a new property tax on more expensive homes, or any wider change to property taxes, becomes a harder sell.
With Labour’s general secretary confirming there will be an election to replace Rayner as deputy leader of the party, the prime minister’s attempt to reset his government will be overshadowed by the internal drama of the race.
Worse than that for Starmer, the membership is likely to pick somebody on the left of the party who promises to push him to stick to Labour values, and who could then potentially cause divides among MPs, encouraging rebellions.
Nor is there any guarantee Rayner will go quietly. Even in office, she always found a way of letting it be known when she thought Starmer should go further – including on welfare and wealth taxes. Unencumbered by the restrictions of office, she may not hold back.
Whether she creates an alternate power base on the backbenches – a red queen across the water – depends in part on how secure she thinks the prime minister is, and if she believes he will stay in post until the next election, or if she could get a shot at the top job.
Leaving office having broken the ministerial code but with the ethics watchdog saying she had “acted with integrity and with a dedicated and exemplary commitment to public service”, potentially leaves the door open for a comeback, and she remains a powerful figure within Labour.
Nevertheless the controversy is deeply damaging for Labour, which is lagging behind Reform UK in the polls. At his conference in Birmingham, Nigel Farage could not hide his delight at the departure of his most dangerous opponent from the political frontline.
By immediately bringing forward a major cabinet reshuffle, orchestrated by his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, Starmer has sought to make the best out of a terrible situation. Westminster will be momentarily distracted by the changes to his top team, but it is Rayner’s exit the public will notice.
The open speculation among his own backbenchers, many of them from the new intake of MPs, about whether he can last the course until the next election, will intensify. The budget and next spring’s local elections, when Scotland and Wales are up for grabs, become moments of intense peril.
“Keir might want to focus on phase two of his plan to change the country,” says a veteran Labour figure. “At this rate, though, he’ll be lucky if he makes it to phase three.”
