Claims of an exodus of wealthy “non-doms” in response to tax rises may be overblown, according to a report that suggests the number leaving the country is in line with official forecasts.

In April the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, scrapped the non-domiciled tax status, which allowed wealthy individuals with connections abroad to avoid paying full UK tax on their overseas earnings.

Since then a wave of reports has suggested that changes to the status and other tax policies are triggering an exodus of high net worth individuals.

However, early monthly payroll data from HM Revenue and Customs appears to indicate that the number of non-dom departures is in line with official predictions, according to sources cited by the Financial Times

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast in January that 25% of non-doms with trusts would leave the UK in response to the abolition of the tax status, while 10% of those without trusts would leave. Official data suggests this prediction was broadly correct, people briefed on the findings told the FT.

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor’s Conservative predecessor, first announced moves to phase out the 225-year-old non-dom status that protected overseas earnings from being taxed in exchange for a flat annual fee. However, Labour took the proposals a step further by replacing them with a regime that will include overseas assets in the UK’s 40% inheritance tax rate.

Many non-doms earn income from work or their pensions in the UK, which means they appear in the PAYE (pay as you earn) figures in the payroll data that businesses send to the tax office each month. If they fall off PAYE figures, that suggests they have left the country.

The FT reported that some of those briefed on early HMRC data said payroll figures suggested that fewer people were leaving than projected by the OBR, while others said the departures were in line with forecasts.

The numbers do not capture the movements of those non-doms who do not work in the UK, which could include some of the richest, but with a shortage of reliable data they will provide some relief to Reeves amid a debate about whether the policy could backfire.

Payroll data is now a more helpful indicator of potential non-dom movement as more than 120 days have passed since the start of the tax year, which started on 6 April. It is likely that anyone who did not want to be considered as a UK tax resident would have left the country.

HMRC has said previously that it will not have official data on how many non-doms who earn UK income have left until January 2027, when people submit self-assessment tax returns for the year 2025-26.

A government spokesperson said: “If you make your home in Britain, then you should pay your taxes here too. That is why we abolished the non-dom tax status to invest in our public services, including the NHS.

“But the UK remains a highly attractive place to live and invest. Our main capital gains tax rate is lower than any other G7 European country and our new residence-based regime is simpler and more attractive than the previous one, whilst it also addresses tax system unfairness so every long-term resident pays their taxes here.”