Jake Berry has had an eclectic political career in the run-up to his defection to Reform UK this week. An enthusiastic campaigner for remain at the referendum, he became a big champion of Boris Johnson, then backed the most moderate candidate, Tom Tugendhat, for party leader.

But after Tugendhat inevitably faltered, he became one of the loudest enthusiasts for Liz Truss’s premiership, under which he was given the post of Tory chair. After her brief leadership ended in collapse, Berry was one of the party’s most restive malcontents. Now, he says, the future is Reform.

The statement from his former local party pulls no punches, accusing him of wallowing in “grievances of the past” and saying the former MP “never truly recovered from the downfall of Liz Truss – a prime minister whose brief and chaotic tenure he enthusiastically supported”. After that came “disengagement … from the serious business of representing his constituents”.

Berry’s decision to defect has caused a lot of anger in the party – coming on the heels of another former cabinet minister David Jones.

It is a serious problem for the Conservative party if defections continue apace. And the most serious are the defections such as Berry – eccentric as his political ideology may seem – for two reasons.

First, as a former party chair he has significant organising experience, which has always been a weakness in the Reform party because of the relative lack of experience among the grassroots. The more experienced Tories defect, including local association chairs and party agents, the more Reform gains vital ground game knowledge – mostly at the expense of the Tories.

Second, and perhaps even more damagingly, it sends a signal that there are many ambitious Tory ex-MPs who do not feel ready to be put out to pasture – and they do not see the Conservative party as their route back to relevance any time soon.

Because of the scale of the party’s losses in July, there are many former Tory MPs who are relatively young and who might have hoped to find a return to parliament. Berry’s defection shows he has come to the conclusion it is a mug’s game to attempt to do that via their old party.

How can Badenoch respond to that when her party may yet slip to fourth below the Liberal Democrats? Can she promise them, seriously, that if they stay the course they can find their way back to a safer seat?

There is one saving grace for the Conservatives. There may come a point where it becomes much more unpalatable for Reform to continue to act as a retirement home for failed Conservative politicians.

Berry’s defection is probably still a net positive, but if hordes of his ilk begin to follow then there will come a time when that becomes deeply awkward for a party that has made gains on the back of Conservative failures.

Can Nigel Farage truly claim to be running an insurgent party railing against the chaos of the past 14 years of Tory rule – especially the perceived failures on migration – if his party is suddenly stuffed full of former Tory ministers hoping desperately to now stand for Reform and return to parliament under his banner?

What if – for example – Truss was to offer to join? Farage lavished praise on her mini-budget initially – but the taint of her tenure may be too much.

The former home secretary Suella Braverman has long been tipped as one of the most likely to jump ship – and has been a loud advocate of the Conservatives needing to do a pact with Reform at the next election. Farage has dismissed that suggestion because of the need for the party to eat as much of the Tory lunch as possible in order to gain enough votes to win seats.

There was one interesting voice warning Farage against the temptation to accept more former Conservative MPs. It came from Rael Braverman – the husband of Suella – who is now a high-profile supporter of Reform. “Reform must not become Tory 2.0,” he posted on X – following it with a dismissive – “Jake who?”