Charities working with refugees do not yet have a settled view on the “one in, one out” returns scheme. Earlier there were statements from Care4Calais at 4.51pm and from the International Rescue Committee at 4.55pm that were very critical.

Now two other major charities have issued statements that are more supportive – but only up to a point. They are saying there is still a need for the government to open up proper safe routes for asylum seekers wanting to come to the UK.

Enver Solomon, chief executive of the Refugee Council, said:

The PM is right to say that the UK must continue to offer a haven for those in need. It’s essential people can make an asylum application, be that in Britain or France, and are treated with dignity, including getting legal advice.

Men, women and children fleeing oppressive regimes like the Taliban and brutal civil wars such as in Sudan should not need to risk their lives on boats to reach safety in Britain. Greater cooperation with France is welcome, but for any solution to work long term the government must adopt a comprehensive approach, including international cooperation, steps to prosecute the gangs and, critically, different safe and legal ways to reach Britain from conflicts such as those in Sudan and also for those with family members in the UK …

The groundbreaking one for one deal with France is an important first step but it’s vital that it is implemented in a way that treats all those seeking asylum fairly and with respect and dignity. For now, it’s too soon to determine what the impact will be.

And this is from Alex Fraser, director of refugee services for the British Red Cross.

Today’s announcement has the potential to help some people who are desperately trying to reach safety in the UK - but this shouldn’t be at the expense of denying other people protection.

To meaningfully reduce the number of people taking these dangerous journeys and prevent further loss of life, we want to see the government create a safe protection route that is more inclusive, and that sees the people behind the numbers.

Those crossing the Channel are human beings - women, children and men who have already endured unimaginable trauma and suffering. We must never lose sight of this.

Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, has issued a statement condemning the deal. He said:

Labour’s deal will only return one in every 17 illegal immigrants arriving. Allowing 94% of illegal immigrants to stay will make no difference whatsoever and have no deterrent effect.

This is the latest catastrophic example that when Labour negotiates, the UK loses.

Starmer’s first move in power was to rip up the Illegal Migration Act, scrap the Rwanda deterrent plan, weaken age checks and reopen the path to citizenship for illegal migrants. This is a green light to people smugglers.

Labour promised to “smash the gangs”, but 2025 so far has been the worst year in history for illegal immigrants crossing the channel and 44,000 illegal immigrants have crossed since the election. Returning 50 illegal immigrants a week only represents 6% of these arrivals.

The Conservatives would restore the Rwanda plan which Starmer cancelled just days before it was due to start. This would see 100% of illegal immigrants being immediately removed without judicial process. The Australian example showed that a 100% removals deterrent works. We will do the same here.

We’ve had enough of Starmer’s weak and ineffective gimmicks.

Here is the text of what Keir Starmer said in his opening statement at the press conference about the ‘one in, one out’ returns agreement.

Starting – first – with tackling illegal migration.

Now, this is a global crisis, and it’s a European crisis. But it is also – very acutely – a crisis for our two nations – a crisis of law, security, humanity – and fairness.

We face a sprawling, multibillion pound enterprise, run by organised criminal gangsl leading hundreds of people to their death in the Channel.

So we are determined, together, to end this vile trade.

There is no silver bullet here. But with a united effort, new tactics –and a new level of intent – we can finally turn the tables.

So I’m pleased to announce our agreement today on a groundbreaking returns pilot.

For the very first time, migrants arriving via small boat will be detained and returned to France – in short order. In exchange for every return, a different individual will be allowed to come here via a safe route, controlled and legal, subject to strict security checks, and only open to those who have not tried to enter the UK illegally.

This will show others trying to make the same journey that it will be in vain. And the jobs they’ve been promised in the UK will no longer exist – because of the nationwide crackdown we’re delivering on illegal working – which is on a completely unprecedented scale.

The president and I have agreed that this pilot will be implemented in coming weeks.

Now, I know some people will still ask – why should we take anyone in? So let me address that directly.

We accept genuine asylum seekers – because it is right that we offer a haven to those in most dire need. But there is also something else here, something more practical. Which is that we simply cannot solve a challenge like stopping the boats. By acting alone and telling our allies that we won’t play ball.

That is why today’s agreement is so important, because we will solve this, like so many of our problems, by working together.

Just look at the steps the French government is planning; subject to their ongoing maritime review, to allow their officers to intervene in shallow waters and prevent more boats from launching.

This is a big step. I want to thank the President for driving it through.

So this is our plan, together: hard-headed, aggressive action on all fronts, to break the gangs’ business model, secure our borders and show that attempting to reach the UK by small boat will only end in failure, detention and return.

Starmer and Macron are now taking questions.

Q: [From ITV’s Robert Peston] Will this pilot scheme really have any deterrent effect? In French, he asks Macron how much money France is getting for this deal. And, back in English, he says Starmer and Macron are both centrists. Do they have any survival tips for centrists in this environment.

Starmer says the point about this is that it is “a pilot to break the [business] model” of people smugglers.

He says he and Macron have agreed this because they have cooperated, “through serioius diplomacy”.

Macron says France and the UK have agreements that are already effective. He says for every £1 the UK puts in to tackling small boats, France spends €3.

He again says Brexit made the illegal migration problem worse for the UK.

One third of illegal immigrants in Schengen countries are people who want to come to the UK, he says. He suggests that is why an EU-wide scheme is needed.

And, on the final part of the question, Macron says populists offer voters simple solution. He cites Brexit as an example. Did it solve the UK’s problems? No.

After Brexit, people thought it was over for centrists. They say policy is compicated. But that turned out not to be the case, he says.

And Starmer says, on this point, achieving results by quiet diplomacy is the mission of his government.

Going back to migration, he says this is a problem around the world. It requires a serious, pragmatic response, not performative politics.

He says, while he and Macron have been working hard, others have just been “taking pictures”. That is a reference to Nigel Farage. (See 5.23pm.)

He says it is really important that social democracy shows it has the answers.

At the press conference Macron says some people in the UK thought Brexit would make it easier for the UK government to stop small boats.

But he says the opposite happened, because the UK was no longer bound by the Dublin convention.

He says the agremeent reached today will come into effect as soon as the legal process has been concluded.

He says it could be a “major deterrent”.

Macron is speaking about the nuclear weapons deal.

He says this goes beyond what the two countries have agreed in the past on the use of nuclear weapons. They say they cannot imagine any extreme threat to Europe that would not prompt a response from both powers.

The two countries are independent and sovereign. But they will have the ability to work together given the “markedly more threatening environment” they face.

Starmer says he and Macro also discussed economic cooperation.

And they strengthened their work on European security, and in support of Ukraine.

They have just chaired a coalition of the willing meeting, he says.

And it will have a new HQ in Paris.

No 10 has just put out a press release about this. It says:

The Coalition of the Willing will have a new permanent headquarters in Paris, with plans in place for a future coordination cell in Kyiv, as command structures for the future reassurance force are finalised.

It comes after leaders from the Coalition of the Willing met virtually today, with the Prime Minister and President Macron joining from the UK’s Permanent Joint Headquarters in Northwood and President Zelenskyy, Prime Minister Meloni and other leaders joining from the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome to discuss the latest planning and our wider efforts to support Ukraine.

For the first time, representatives of the United States, including Special Presidential Envoy, General Keith Kellogg, Senator Lindsey Graham and Senator Richard Blumenthal, joined the meeting.

Military chiefs updated on the significant progress made, including the completion of reconnaissance visits to Ukraine, to better understand how a post-ceasefire force could best help regenerate the strength and firepower of Ukrainian forces and provide reassurance in the years to come.

Following agreement on command structures for the force, leaders agreed that planning should continue on an enduring, business as usual footing, to ensure that a force can deploy in the days following the cessation of hostilities.

That will include a 3-star multi-national operational headquarters in Paris, led by the UK and France, to oversee all tactical and operational arrangements.

Starmer moves to illegal migration.

This is a global crisis, he says. But it is also “acutely” a crisis for UK and France.

An enterprise run by criminals is leading hundreds of people to their deaths in the Channel.

They have agreed “a ground-breaking returns pilot”.

He says, in exchange for every migrant returned, another migrant will be allowed to enter the UK legally. This will be subject to strict checks, and only available to people who have not tried to enter the UK illegally.

This will be implemented in the coming weeks.

Some people will ask – why take anyone?

But it is right to offer haven to people in dire need, Starmer says.

But he says there is another point – the government has to show it can work with others on this.

He thanks Macron for his support for the French police using tougher measures to stop boats leaving.

Keir Starmer is opening his press conference.

He starts by calling Emmanuel Macron as a “firm friend”.

Here is an extract from a briefing note being circulated within government explaining why FTPT is being abandoned for mayoral and PCC elections. (See 4.16pm.)

Mayors serve many millions of people and manage multi-million pound budgets yet can be elected by just a fraction of the vote, under recent changes by the previous government. This is despite the supplementary vote system working effectively for over a decade previously, providing a strong, personal mandate for regional mayors.

While FPTP is a simple voting system, on a vast geographic scale it can lead to individuals being elected with only a small proportion of the total votes cast. Given the large population that regional mayors and PCCs represent - far exceeding that of parliamentarians - the government believes that they should be elected with a greater consensus among their electors. The bill will therefore change the voting system for these types of elections to the supplementary vote system.

Labour is going to bring back the supplementary vote (SV) for mayoral and police and crime commissioner (PCC) elections in England.

The provision is included in the English devolution and community empowerment bill, which has been published today. It is clause 59 of the bill.

These elections always used to be held under the supplementary vote system, which gives voters the chance to select a first preference and a second preference and means that, if no candidate gets more than 50% when first preference votes are counted, the top two candidates go into a run-off, with the second preference votes for candidates who are eliminated being taken into account.

But in 2022 the last government changed the voting system for mayoral and PCC elections to first past the post (FPTP) – the system used in UK parliamentary elections.

The Tories argued that FPTP is easier to understand. But the move was widely seen as an attempt to boost the chances of Conservative candidates, and a Constitution Unit analysis of how the system operated in 2024 confirmed this. It said that, although none of the mayoral election results that year were affected by the switch to FPTP, at least four, and potentially up to 12, PCC election results were affected. It went on:

Because the left in British politics is currently more fragmented than the right, the switch from SV to FPTP favoured the Conservatives over Labour and other left or centre-left parties. By changing the voting system, the Conservatives significantly reduced their losses.

Many Labour figures believe that a switch from FTPT to SV will help their party beat Reform UK in mayoral contests.

Curiously, Angela Rayner, the deputy PM and housing secretary, has not mentioned this aspect of the bill in her press release about it.

Keir Starmer and French president Emmanuel Macron called for more pressure in the form of fresh sanctions against Moscow to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine, Jakub Krupa reports on his Europe live blog.

The Starmer/Macron press conference is now due to start at 4pm.

I will be covering it here, but Jakub will also be covering European angles, particularly relating to Ukraine and the coalition of the willing.

Keir Starmer has said that European plans for a peacekeeping force to aid Ukraine once the war ends are now “mature” after months of planning.

Speaking at the Allied Maritime Command (MARCOM) centre in Northwood, London, during a call with allies who make up the “coalition of the willing”, Starmer said:

I am very pleased to say today that these plans are mature and we are putting them on a long-term footing.

He also said what was important now for the coalition was “making sure that our focus is on ensuring Ukraine is in the strongest possible position” in the event of a ceasefire.

New headquarters for the coalition are to be based in Paris, he added.

And Emmanuel Macron, who is with Starmer, told the gathered allies: “We have a plan that is ready to go and initiate in the hours after a ceasefire.”

Sitting alongside Starmer was defence secretary John Healey, national security adviser Jonathan Powell, and Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, chief of the defence staff.

Macron was joined by Healey’s French counterpart Sebastien Lecornu, and high ranking officials.

Iran’s intimidation, including the fear of physical attack and assassination of Iranian dissidents living in the UK, is comparable in scale to the threat posed by Russia, parliament’s intelligence and security committee has found. Patrick Wintour has the story.

During her Q&A Kemi Badenoch said that it was Tory policy to support the triple lock for pensions. (See 12.51pm.) But she also said she was focusing on policy “right now”, and she did not say it would still be Conservative policy by the time of the next election.

Labour claims this means the Tories want to cut pensions. In a news release, a party spokesperson said:

Kemi Badenoch has put pensioners on notice: the Tories want to slash the state pension for 11 million people.

The Tory leader has repeatedly refused to commit to the triple lock and has talked up means testing pensions. This simply means less money in the pockets of retirees is now Tory policy. Pensions are not safe with the Tories.

In its recent fiscal sustainabiltiy report, the Office for Budget Responsibility said the triple lock policy – which says the state pension should go up every year in line with earnings, inflation or by 2.5%, whichever is biggest – will be costing £15.5bn a year by 2029-30, three times as much as expected when it was introduced in 2012. The OBR said if this continued over the next 50 years, the policy would end up costing £43bn a year in 2024-25 prices).

Severin Carrell is the Guardian’s Scotland editor.

Ross Greer, a prominent Scottish Greens MSP who cut his teeth in the Scottish independence campaign in 2014, has announced he is standing to be party co-leader, with a pledge to introduce free universal bus travel.

The Scottish Green party, which currently holds seven seats at Holyrood, placing it fourth behind Labour, is holding elections this summer for both co-convenor roles after Patrick Harvie, its very long-serving co-convenor, announced he was standing down.

Greer, a regional list MSP for West of Scotland, said:

People are sick of politicians telling them to accept ‘hard choices’ when they can see greedy landlords, polluters and the super-rich getting an easy ride.

I’m proud of my track record, taking on the extremely wealthy and delivering for ordinary people. I’ve increased taxes on landlords and higher earners, raising billions of pounds to protect public services like the NHS from further budget cuts. I’ve delivered relief to struggling families by cancelling school meal debts. And I’ve fought back against corporate greed to protect Loch Lomond from Flamingo Land’s destructive mega-resort proposals.

As Scottish Greens co-leader, I would take us into the next election demanding an end to the outrageous tax breaks currently enjoyed by aristocrats, big businesses and the royal family. If the super-rich pay their fair share, we can deliver more free bus travel, more free school meals and more of the support people really need in their lives.

We can end child poverty and tackle the climate crisis, but only if we fix a system rigged by the super-rich.

Here are the main points from Kemi Badenoch’s speech.

• Badenoch said the rise in the number of people claiming for sickness and disability benefits was a “new phenomenon” and that it meant people were getting benefits when they should not. She said:

We now live in a country where one in four people self report as disabled, and people are receiving disability benefits for having tennis elbow. I know some may disagree with me, but I do not believe that one in four of us can be considered disabled without the term losing all meaning.

There is an explanation for the ‘one in four’ figure (24%, to be precise) in this DWP report. It is based on the definition of disabled in the Equality Act, which says a person is considered to have a disability if they have a physical or mental impairment that has ‘substantial’ and ‘long term’ negative effects on their ability to do normal daily activities.

• She claimed that many young people do not appreciate the value of work. She said:

We will have to win arguments, arguments that too many in politics have forgotten how to make – like a life of work being better than one dependent on the state, not just better for society, although we believe that to, but actually better for the soul, that it feels better to contribute and enjoy the freedom that comes with paying your own way.

Too many young people are growing up not knowing that. They think that a life on benefits is an alternative to working. They think that isolating themselves at home is OK because starting a job feels daunting. We have to show them a better way.

• She said that “ever more generous” welfare spending was bad for society.

We need to win the argument that an ever more generous welfare budget isn’t kind, it’s cruel. It locks people out of opportunity. It puts support for those who genuinely need it at risk.

Every other party thinks the public want more welfare, but I think people have more common sense than that. I think that they can see the damage it’s doing to our country.

• She said entitlement to sickness benefits should be cut.

There will always be some people who need help from the state, people who have a really challenging disability, people who have worked and paid into the system for years, but who lose their jobs suddenly through no fault of their own.

But we can’t afford to be spending a billion pounds a month on benefits for foreign nationals. It is not unreasonable to expect someone to have paid in and become a British citizen before they unlock access to sickness benefits.

That was a plan we put forward yesterday, a plan that Labour voted down.

We also clearly cannot afford to support one in four people who now classify themselves as disabled. We are going to have to draw a line in the sand about which conditions the state gives out support for.

Food intolerances are a medical fact, but they’re not something we should be handing out new cars for. This is not a joke. This actually happens. And anxiety and mild depression are real conditions. But that doesn’t mean that those suffering should be signed off work courtesy of the taxpayer.

She said the Centre for Social Justice thinktank has published a report saying cutting these benefits could save £9bn, which would be used to fund better treatment for people with mental health conditions.

• She said the problem with Labour’s welfare reforms was that they were trying to “tinker with a system that needs wholesale reform”.

• She defended the two-child benefit cap, and said the Tories would hold a vote on it in the Commons next week.

We brought it in because we believe the people on benefits should have to make the same decisions on having children as everyone else but Labour and Reform MPs don’t even understand what the cap does, and they don’t care that lifting it would create another £3bn pound black hole in our finances.

• She rejected claims that the Tories were not entitled to criticise the state of the welfare system because they were in power until last year. In fact, the last government had a good record, she said. She said the welfare system was “dysfunctional mess” in 2010. The Tories simplified the system with universal credit, and brought the welfare bill down, she said.

• She said the welfare system should act like a “trampoline”, cushioning your fall and pushing you back on your feet, not like a “giant net”, engulfing you and making it impossible to climb out.

Q: Does it worry you that ambitious politicians on the right think they have to join Reform UK to get on?

Badenoch said there are a lot of people who come into politics “just to play the game of politics”. They follow the polls, and defect, she said. She was different, she suggested. She said she was working on a proper plan for government.

UPDATE: Badenoch said:

This is something which I say again and again, that there are a lot of people who come into politics just to play the game of politics. And they will follow polls and defect wherever they can, like they do in banana republics, to wherever they think that they can win.

We have to do more than win. We have to be ready with a plan. This is what Labour got wrong. They had no plan. They were just focused on the election, and now they’re in government, and they’re completely at sea, they cannot deliver anything.

All of the people who are not interested in coming up with a proper policy plan and just want to jump ship are welcome to do so, because when the time comes, at the next general election, the public are going to be looking for a serious, credible alternative. We are the only serious, credible alternative.

Q: You have lost a second former cabinet minister to Reform UK within a week. (Former Welsh secretary David Jones, and Jake Berry.) What does that say about your leadership?

Badenoch says she has set out her views here. If people want more welfare spending and higher taxes, they should join other parties, she says.

Q: Do you agree with the OBR that the triple lock is unsustainable?

Badenoch says the immediate problem is with working age benefits. That is where welfare reform needs to start.

She says the triple lock is Conservative policy. “Right now” the party wants to focus on sickness and disability benefits, she says.

Kemi Badenoch is delivering her speech on welfare now. There is a live feed at the top of the blog.

Badenoch started

We are becoming a welfare state with an economy attached – 28 million people in Britain are now working to pay the wages and benefits of 28 million others. The rider is as big as the horse.

This isn’t just about welfare. It’s about politics too. We have a Labour government beholden to their left wing.

MPs choose not to fix this problem, a Reform Party that cannot, this is a ticking time bomb, and with the exception of the Conservatives, the political class don’t see it or refuse to acknowledge it. In fact, a lot of them want to make it worse.

If we don’t solve this problem, our economy will collapse. A million young people are currently not in education, employment or training, and we are on course to spend one in every four pounds of income tax on sickness benefits alone.

What began as a safety net for the most vulnerable has moved into something completely different. The system is unsustainable, and this threatens all the good it was designed to do.

In the Commons Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has just delivered a statement about the announcement from resident doctors (hospital medics, formerly known as junior doctors) that they will go on strike in England for five days.

Streeting argued that it was unprecedented for a union to go on strike after receiving as good a pay deal as that offered to resident doctors. Elaborating on what he said in his open letter to the BMA released yesterday, Streeting said that when resident doctors were on strike when the Tories were in power, refusing to even meet them, they had the support of the public. But now they don’t, he said. He urged them to take up his offer to meet them so the strike can be averted.

His statement was theoretically addressed to MPs, but in practice it was directed at the BMA, and at the public at large. He is trying to use public opinion as leverage against the union.

UPDATE: Streeting said:

Just one in five people believe the BMA [British Medical Association] are doing the right thing. Patients are begging resident doctors not to walk out on them, and I hope the BMA are listening, because many resident doctors are.

For the first time since their campaign began, a majority of BMA resident doctors did not vote for strike action. They can see that the government has changed, our approach has changed, yet the BMA’s tactics have not.

Resident doctors have received the highest pay award in the public sector, both this year and last year. So renegotiating this year’s pay award would be deeply unfair to all other public servants. Such a deal would be paid for by their future earnings and with the greatest respect of resident doctors, there are people working in our public services who are feeling the pinch more than they are.

And even if it wouldn’t be unfair on public sector workers, it is unaffordable. It should be apparent to anyone that the public finances this Government inherited are not awash with cash.

So, I will not and cannot negotiate on this year’s pay award. And I am not going to lead resident doctors up the garden path by making promises unless I know I can keep them.

Kemi Badenoch is also going to describe Nigel Farage as like “Jeremy Corbyn with a pint and a cigarette” in her speech, according to the overnight briefing. She will say:

Nigel Farage pretends to be a Thatcherite Conservative but really, he’s just Jeremy Corbyn with a pint and a cigarette. On welfare he shows his true colours - promising unaffordable giveaways with no plan to fix the system.

Badenoch is referring to Farage announcing last month that Reform UK would lift the two-child benefit cap.

Kemi Badenoch is giving a speech on welfare later. According to the briefing sent out overnight, she will claim that the welfare system amounts to a “ticking time bomb” because of the rate at which spending is going up and she will propose significant cuts.

She will outline a three-point plan to “fix welfare”. According to CCHQ, this involves:

1) Limit benefits - ending handouts to foreign nationals and restricting sickness benefits to more serious conditions. Modelling by the Centre for Social Justice shows that tightening mental health-related claims like anxiety alone could save up to £9bn.

2) Face to face assessments - restoring face-to-face checks and requiring proper medical evidence to stop the system being gamed.

3) Get people back to work - through retraining and early intervention. Under the last Conservative government, unemployment halved and 800 jobs were created every single day. The Conservatives will get people back to work again.

Of these, point 1) is by far the most significant, because the government is already planning a £1bn-plus investment in getting people back to work, and Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, has said she wants more face-to-face assessments for sickness benefits.

Badenoch is expected to say:

It is not fair to spend £1bn a month on benefits for foreign nationals and on handing out taxpayer-funded cars for conditions like constipation.

We should be backing the makers – rewarding the people getting up every morning, working hard to build our country.

Our welfare system should look after the most vulnerable in society – not those cheating the system.

Badenoch’s speech coincides with the publication of a new analysis by the Centre for Social Justice thinktank saying that people on sickness benefits can end up receiving more than people working full-time on the national living wage, and that the government could save up to £9bn a year by cutting benefits for people with mental health conditons. The CSJ was set up by Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader, and Badenoch seems to agree with the broad thrust of what it is saying.

In its news release the thinktank says:

In 2026/27, an economically inactive claimant on Universal Credit (UC) with the average housing benefit and Personal Independence Payment (PIP) for ill health would receive an income of around £25,000 – rising to £27,500 for those awarded PIP’s highest rate.

For new claimants, this falls to £22,550 once the Welfare Bill’s £47 per week cut to UC Health is taken into account.

By comparison, a full-time worker on the National Living Wage (NLW) is expected to earn £22,500 after paying income tax and national insurance – leaving a £2,500 gap between work and welfare for existing claimants.

The Daily Mail has splashed on this argument. The Daily Telegraph has also put it on the front page.

Tom Pollard, head of social policy at the New Economics Foundation thinktank, has posted this comment on Bluesky.

It seems completely reasonable to me that someone who has been assessed by DWP as being unable to work due to disabilities/poor health & as facing significant health/disability related extra costs should be supported by the government to have an income around the level of a minimum wage salary 1/2

The ‘work disincentive’ argument implied here is completely disingenuous because people would keep PIP (& a decent chunk of their UC) if they moved into work The vast majority of people in this position would rather be working if their health allowed 2/2

Campaigners have renewed calls to scrap the two-child benefit limit after the latest figures showed the number of children in affected households is approaching 1.7 million across Great Britain, PA Media reports. PA says:

There were 1,665,540 children living in households in England, Wales and Scotland affected by the two-child benefit limit in April, figures published by the Department for Work and Pensions showed.

This was a rise of 37,150 (2%) from April last year.

There were a total of 469,780 households on universal credit affected by the policy – an increase of 13,520 (3%) from the total number of households affected in April 2024.

More than half (59%) of households affected by the policy are in work, the data showed.

A total of 275,820 households affected are in work while 193,960 households are out of work, the department said.

The government is expected to publish a child poverty strategy in autumn, and a multitude of campaign groups have said it must contain a commitment to do away with the two-child benefit limit.

The limit restricts child tax credit and universal credit (UC) to the first two children in most households.

Organisations working in the sector argue that 109 children across the UK are pulled into poverty by the policy every day and that an estimated 350,000 children would be lifted out of poverty immediately if it was scrapped.

Joseph Howes, chair of the End Child Poverty Coalition, said the government’s “‘moral mission’ to end child poverty will fail if the two-child benefit cap remains, arguing that “no child poverty strategy will succeed in lifting kids out of poverty, if this policy remains”.

He added: “We have heard the government say that they are looking at all ‘the available levers’ to reduce child poverty. We all know that this is the lever that needs pulling first – backed up by the government’s own data released today. It’s time for the government to act.”

This chart, from today’s DWP report, shows how the number of households on tax credits or universal credit affected by the two-child benefit cap has risen since it was introduced.

And this table shows the number of households affected by the policy, the number of children living in those households, and the number of children directly affected (because they were not the first or second-born child). In practice, of course, all children living in these households are likely to be affected by a reduction in benefits paid to parents.

Emmanuel Macron is speaking now. After opening in English, he switches to French, for the benefit of the French media.

He says the UK and France are opening a new chapter in their relationship.

The two countries are working together on economic challenges, he says. That will involve having more integrated capital markets, he says.

They are working together on security issues, he says.

On small boats, he says poverty is a root cause. The migrants are exploited by smugglers, he says. He says there is a need to tackle this with “common resolve”, and to restrict the entry points into Europe.

We have common resolve in fighting this traffic and protecting our people and the men and women from these smugglers, and engage all countries that have a co-responsibility on our side.

Macron says the EU also wants to tackle illegal migration. He says this will start with a “bilateral discussion” (between the UK and France, he implies), but he says that must be “broadened” (implying that ultimately the EU must be involved in a solution).

UPDATE: See 10.45am for a fuller version of what Macron said.

Sky News is now broadcasting remarks from Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron at their summit in Downing Street.

Starmer says the situation in the Channel cannot go on as it is now.

We all agree the situation in the channel cannot go on as it is. So we’re bringing new tactics into play and a new level of intent to tackle illegal migration and break the business model of the criminal gangs.

UPDATE: Starmer said:

In uncertain times, we achieve more by strengthening our relationship with our allies, so that is what today is all about working together on the priorities that we share as two nations.

For us, it’s about delivering the changes that the British people want to see, and we will agree the situation in the Channel cannot go on as it is. So we’re bringing new tactics into play and a new level of intent to tackle illegal migration and break the business model of the criminal gangs …

We’re also updating the historic Lancaster House Treaty, an ambition that we put in motion very early on to strengthen our collective defence and security as Europe’s only nuclear powers providing about 40% of European defence spending, we share a unique responsibility for the security of this continent.

And it’s also right that we lead the response on Ukraine.

Later today, Emmanuel and I will bring the coalition of the willing together again to rally even more support to keep Ukraine in the fight for now, and to drive Putin to the negotiating table.

On all these fronts, we are working to meet danger and uncertainty together with a show of force, a show of unity.

The waiting list for routine hospital treatment in England has fallen for the second month in a row and is now at its lowest level for more than two years, PA Media reports. PA says:

An estimated 7.36 million treatments were waiting to be carried out at the end of May, relating to just under 6.23 million patients – down from 7.39 million treatments and just over 6.23 million patients at the end of April.

These are the lowest figures since March 2023 for treatments and April 2023 for patients.

The list hit a record high in September 2023, with 7.77 million treatments and 6.50 million patients.

And this is what NHS England is saying about the figures in its own press release.

Monthly NHS data shows the overall waiting list dropped by nearly 30,000 in May to 7.36 million – the lowest total since March 2023 – with 60.9% waiting 18 weeks or less for planned care (the highest proportion since July 2022).

Staff carried out an average of 75,009 planned treatments each working day in May – the highest number on record – with a total of 1.5 million treatments across the month, which is up on 1.45 million in April and higher than 1,437,914 pre-pandemic (May 2019).

It was the busiest May ever for the number of tests and checks, with 2.5 million (2,465,184) carried out, up 23% on pre-pandemic (1,996,365 in May 2019), with community diagnostic centres seeing patients closer to their homes.

The new figures show June was the busiest month ever for A&Es with average daily attendances of over 78,300 – with last month seeing 14 days covered by heat health alerts, and another heatwave set to hit in the coming days. Despite this, the highest proportion of patients were seen within 4 hours since August 2024 (75.5%) and it was the best June performance since 2021.

As Jessica Elgot and Nadeem Badshah report, Jake Berry, the former Tory minister, has defected to Reform UK. This is more significant than most other Tory-to-Reform defections because Berry was chairman of the party – albeit only for a few weeks, when Liz Truss was PM.

It is also significant because Berry has written an article for the Sun saying that the last Conservative government wrecked the country. He says:

Let’s not kid ourselves. Britain is broken. Our streets are completely lawless. Migration is out of control.

Taxes are going through the roof. And day after day, I hear from people in my community and beyond who say the same thing — “This isn’t the Britain I grew up in.” And they’re right.

It didn’t start with Labour. The Conservative governments I was part of share the blame.

We now have a tax system that punishes hard work and ambition.

We face seeing record numbers of our brightest and best people leaving Britain because they can’t see a future here.

At the same time, our benefits system is pulling in the world’s poor with no plan for integration and no control over who comes in.

No leadership. No direction. No backbone.

If you were deliberately trying to wreck the country, you’d be hard-pressed to do a better job than the last two decades of Labour and Tory rule.

Berry is trying to be even-handed, but over the last two decades Labour has been in power for six of those years, and the Conservatives for 14 years (but governing in coalition with the Lib Dems for five of those). Berry was an MP for that entire 14-year period.

If he thought at the time that the government he was supporting was wrecking the country, he does not seem to have said so publicly.

John Healey, the defence secretary, was doing an interview round this morning primarily to talk about an Anglo-French defence agreement announced overnight. “The UK and France are stepping up together to meet today’s threats and tomorrow’s challenges,” he said.

The deal includes an agreement to order a new generation of anti-ship cruise missiles, to replace Storm Shadow. And there is an agreement that use of British and French nuclear deterrents could be coordinated. The Ministry of Defence says:

In an important step forward for the UK-France nuclear partnership – a newly signed declaration will state for the first time that the respective deterrents of both countries are independent but can be coordinated, and that there is no extreme threat to Europe that would not prompt a response by both nations.

As such, any adversary threatening the vital interests of Britain or France could be confronted by the strength of the nuclear forces of both nations. Co-operation between both countries on nuclear research will also deepen, while working together to uphold the international non-proliferation architecture.

The UK and France are Europe’s only nuclear powers, with deterrents that contribute significantly to the overall security of NATO and the Euro-Atlantic.

Good morning. Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, the French president, will mark the end of the three-day state visit with a press conference this afternoon where they will explain what has been agreed. And it is now clear that Starmer has got some sort of ‘one in, one out’ returns deal for small boat migrants. In our story this morning Kiran Stacey says:

Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron will announce a “one in, one out” migration deal on Thursday that will involve the UK accepting some cross-Channel asylum seekers but returning others to France.

The two leaders are expected to cap the French president’s three-day state visit to the UK with a press conference in London at which they will announce the new plan to tackle small boat crossings.

Officials were still in talks over the details of the plan on Thursday morning, including when it would begin, but other hurdles such as the opposition of other European countries are understood to have been cleared.

For Starmer, this is a big win. It is something that the last Conservative goverment never managed to negotiate (if anything, they managed the opposite, because they implemented Brexit, which halted returns under the Dublin agreement), and it means that Labour can respond more easily to claims that only an effective deterrent will stop the small boat crossings.

But … the scheme that is being set up seems to be relatively small, and already there are doubts about whether it will be effective. This is how Andrew McDonald and Bethany Dawson sum it up in their London Playbook briefing for Politico.

17 in, one out: The pair are expected to announce a limited trial of a one in, one out returns deal. And it is limited. Le Monde first reported that 50 migrants will be sent back to France per week from the end of next month. With an average of 843 arriving every week since Labour took power, that would equate to one in 17 if arrivals continue at that rate (and they’ve generally been rising).

This is how the Sun is summing it up on its front page this morning.

And this is what Chris Philp, shadow home secretary, told the Times for its report on the deal.

This deal will mean that 94 per cent of illegal migrants crossing the Channel will get to stay. That is pathetic and will not deter anyone. By contrast, the Rwanda deterrent would have seen 100 per cent of illegal migrants removed and that would have worked to deter people crossing the Channel. Keir Starmer’s failure continues.

Obviously, the Sun, and Chris Philp, are about the last sources you would turn to for a fair, objective assessment of a Labour immigration policy. But there are other people who are doubtful too. The government has not confirmed what has actually been agreed yet and John Healey, the defence secretary, was sidestepping questions about it when doing the interview round this morning. But the Today programme also interviewed Mike Tapp, the Labour MP for Dover. Tapp told the programme he was encouraged by the announcement. If migrants in Calais, who pay up to £6,000 to cross the channel, start to think they might be sent back immediately, then that “starts to break the smuggling gang model”, he said.

But, asked if just 50 people a week being returned would be enough, he replied:

I can’t comment on the exact numbers, because obviously these negotiations haven’t finalised. We’ll hear more in the very near future.

Asked again if 50 was enough, he replied:

I’m going to be completely honest with you, I don’t know until it happens.

Here is the agenda for the day.

Morning: Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron hold a UK-France summit in Downing Street. They are expected to speak to the media at about 9.45am, but they won’t be holding a press conference until the afternoon, after a military-themed visit.

9.30am: NHS England publishes its latest monthly peformance figures.

9.30am: The Department for Work and Pensions publishes figures on the impact of the two-child benefit cap.

10.30am: The intelligence and security committee publishes a report on the threat posed by Iran.

12.30pm: Kemi Badenoch gives a speech on welfare.

Lunchtime: Chris Philp, shadow home secretary, speaks at a press gallery lunch in Westminster.

3.30pm: Starmer and Macron hold a press conference.

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