Britain has still not committed to an increase in defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by the mid-2030s at this month’s Nato summit in line with a proposal from the alliance’s secretary general, Mark Rutte, defence sources said.
Though Rutte visited Downing Street on Monday and expressed confidence afterwards that countries would sign up, senior insiders said Britain was dragging its heels.
One accused No 10 of “having its head in the sand”, and said Britain had been caught out by the unexpected willingness of countries such as Italy, Belgium and Canada – traditionally laggards on defence spending – to sign up.
Rutte’s proposal, devised in response to pressure from Donald Trump, is for Nato allies to agree to dramatically lift core military spending to 3.5% of GDP in the 2030s, with a further 1.5% on cybersecurity and other defence-related budgets.
After meeting Keir Starmer on Monday, Rutte said in a speech at Chatham House: “I expect allied leaders to agree to spend 5% of GDP on defence.” Of that, 3.5% would be on core military budgets, but he did not say specifically that the UK had agreed to the plan.
The Nato chief warned that Russia could be ready to attack a member of the alliance within five years, given the scale of its rearmament. He said that if the UK was not prepared to increase defence budgets to the 3.5% figure, “you had better learn to speak Russian”.
Earlier on Wednesday, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, reiterated commitments given in February by Starmer to increase defence spending to 2.6% of GDP by April 2027. That amounts to a cash total of £71bn, an increase of £10.7bn from the expected £60.3bn in 2024/5.
Treasury documents also repeated there was “an ambition to reach 3% in the next parliament as economic and fiscal conditions allow”. Senior defence insiders argued that restating the existing position was a misstep and failed to acknowledge that Nato was expected to agree further increases in spending in the next fortnight.
A week ago, the UK released a “Nato first” defence review based on the idea that spending would rise to 2.5% by 2027 and 3% in the next parliament, but one insider suggested there could have been more money for the review team to allocate had the exercise had been delayed several months.
“The sequencing of the defence review with the Nato summit has not been well thought out,” one defence source argued. An extra 1 percentage point of GDP would amount to about £30bn, though the exact figure would depend on the size of the UK economy at the time.
A second source said last-minute consideration had been given to delaying the defence review until the autumn but it was felt this was in breach of commitments given by defence secretary, John Healey, to publish the document in the spring.
Downing Street pointed to a readout of Starmer’s meeting with Rutte that it released on Monday. That said the two men had agreed that Nato allies “still needed to go further and faster to ensure stability and security and reinforce defence industries for the future”, implying the UK acknowledged the case for extra spending.
It said “the leaders also discussed future funding proposals for Nato and underscored the importance of going further to step up on national resilience and protect critical national infrastructure,” though the statement did not refer to any specific spending figures.
Nato’s new defence plan, designed to deter Russia from attacking its eastern flank, envisages a fivefold increase in air and missile defence, and allies buying thousands more tanks and armoured vehicles, millions more artillery shells and a doubling of logistics, supply, transportation and medical support.
Last week, defence insiders predicted that the UK would eventually be forced into agreeing to an increase in military spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, although the exact date remains a subject of negotiation. But the discussions appear to be continuing until close to the start of the summit on 24 June.
Spain is the only Nato member that has publicly declared it is not prepared to meet the proposed 3.5% commitment itself. But last week, Margarita Robles, the country’s defence minister, said Madrid would not veto an alliance-wide decision to increase the spending target either. Nato traditionally makes decisions by consensus.
Starmer is due to speak again to Rutte at the G7 summit in Canada at the weekend.
Separately, the US announced it had conducted a quick review of its participation in the joint Aukus nuclear-powered submarine project with Australia and the UK that was agreed under the Biden administration. A US withdrawal could put the future of the project in doubt, and comes at a time when Washington is pressing Canberra to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP.
