The government is intensifying efforts to quell a growing rebellion over welfare cuts, with whips stepping up contact with MPs and strategists drawing up plans for a cabinet reshuffle in case of resignations.
Ministers are taking a carrot-and-stick approach by laying out extra support for people who face losing their benefits, while also warning mutinous MPs of the consequences of voting against the plans.
Several MPs said that whips were strengthening efforts to bring them into line after Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, sought to ease concerns by promising extra protections for vulnerable people.
Some MPs say there have been suggestions that the vote on cuts could be treated as a confidence issue, with those rebelling facing suspension from the whip or even deselection. No 10 and government sources strongly denied this.
A senior government source said plans were being drawn up for new ministerial appointments in case any frontbenchers resign to vote against the cuts. No 10 is said to be keen on rewarding new MPs who have made an impression since the general election a year ago.
The government plans to introduce a bill next week that will contain its welfare changes – including controversial cuts to disability benefits.
Government figures say that concessions by Kendall this week have won over some would-be rebels. The Guardian reported Kendall would put “non-negotiable” protections for the most vulnerable benefits recipients in the legislation.
Under the changes, people with less than 12 months to live and those with lifelong conditions would automatically get a higher rate of universal credit and would be exempt from reassessments, which usually take place every three years.
Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of people who will no longer qualify for personal independence payments (Pip) under the changes will continue to receive payments for 13 weeks, instead of the usual four.
But some MPs are unmoved by the changes. One senior Labour backbencher said: “This so-called olive branch is completely meaningless and won’t have persuaded a single Labour MP, many of whom are really concerned for the impact on disabled people in their constituencies. These reforms were rushed through with no proper impact assessment and the government has to go back to the drawing board.”
The government’s proposed cuts to Pip, a benefit intended to help disabled people with their quality of life and unconnected to employment, have caused uproar in the parliamentary Labour party. About 170 Labour MPs are said to have communicated their concerns to the government.
Government sources say the number of prospective rebels has fallen as a result of Kendall’s concessions as well as ministers’ openness to scrapping the two-child benefit cap and the Conservatives’ decision to vote against the bill.
Under the proposed changes, claimants would qualify for Pip only if they score a minimum of four points on a single daily living activity. Assessments score from 0 to 12 the difficulty that claimants face in a range of living activities such as preparing and eating food, communicating, washing and getting dressed.
More than 370,000 people stand to lose their payments, while another 430,000 who would have qualified would no longer be eligible. On average these people will lose £4,500 a year.
The government has argued the welfare system needs dramatic reform, with 1,000 new people a day making claims. Even with the cuts, Pip payments will continue to rise: an extra 750,000 people will receive payments by the end of this parliament.
