Afternoon summary
Keir Starmer has accused the Tories and others criticising the UK-India trade deal because of its tax exemption provisions for workers on secondment of talking “incoherent nonsense”. (See 3.25pm.)
Kemi Badenoch has been accused by Indian officials of talking “rubbish” after she denounced the “two-tier” tax arrangement at the heart of the UK/India trade deal, the Financial Times reports. In their story, George Parker, David Sheppard and Andres Shipani say “New Delhi officials insist Badenoch agreed the principle of giving Indian employees in the UK relief from Britain’s national insurance levy during her time as business and trade secretary in the last Tory government.”
I’m sorry we have to wrap up early today. For a full list of all the stories covered here today, scroll through the key events timeline at the top of the blog.
Green party urges Labour to drop 'war on nature' after impact assessment suggests green rules aren't blocking development
There is very little evidence that protections for nature are a blocker to development, the government has admitted in its own impact assessment of the controversial new planning and infrastructure bill. Sandra Laville has the story here.
Commenting on the story, Ellie Chowns, the Green MP, said:
This is an astonishing admission from government today. Their own analysis shows how they’re willing to sell nature down the river under the entirely false premise that nature is a blocker to development. I have said for months now that this binary framing is reductive, untrue, and doesn’t help deliver a serious debate.
It’s time government dropped their war on nature and instead start thinking about how we can deliver the affordable house building we need, and the national infrastructure we all rely on, in a way that works with and for nature, and not against it. The impact assessment makes it abundantly clear that the existing planning and infrastructure bill does not currently do this.
What Starmer said about opposition parties criticising taxation exemption in UK-India trade deal
A reader asks:
One query if I may about the headline (“Starmer says criticism of UK-India trade deal is ‘incoherent nonsense’”) - was this in response to criticism of it from Badenoch?
I ask because I can’t see any thing from Badenoch about the deal in your report. She’s been volubly criticising the deal on social media, which makes it looks like she isn’t willing to repeat those criticisms in the house, where she might have to defend them.
Keir Starmer was referring to what Kemi Badenoch, the Tories, and others have said about the deal. But he was not responding to Badenoch, or referring to what she said during PMQs, because she did not mention it.
Instead, Starmer was responding to a question from the Labour MP Matt Western. Western did not ask about the India trade deal either – he is MP for Warwick and Leamington, and he asked about the car industry, and trade talks with the US – but Starmer clearly wanted to use his pre-prepared line on the US-India deal, and so he crowbarred it in here.
Starmer said:
We are backing British car companies such as JLR, and our India trade deal will see tariffs slashed for car sales, which is good for British jobs. The criticism of the double taxation is incoherent nonsense. It is a benefit to working people; it is in the agreements that we already have with 50 other countries. If the hon member for Clacton [Nigel Farage] or the leader of the opposition are seriously suggesting that they are going to tear up agreements with 50 other countries, creating a massive hole in our economy, they should get up and say so.
A reader points out that it is not just the Tories and Reform UK who have criticised the deal over the double contribution convention. The Liberal Democrats did too. In a press notice yesterday, Daisy Cooper, the deputy leader and Treasury spokesperson, said:
This deal risks undercutting British workers at a time when they’re already being hammered by Trump’s trade war and Labour’s misguided jobs tax.
The Liberal Democrats are also calling for MPs to get a vote on the deal. Keir Starmer has ruled this out – even though in 2021 Labour said MPs should vote on trade deals.
Scottish Tory leader says 'vote for Reform is vote for SNP', as poll suggests Reform would come 2nd in Holyrood elections
Severin Carrell is the Guardian’s Scotland editor.
John Swinney and the Scottish Tory leader have exchanged fire over the looming presence of Nigel Farage in Scotland, with the Tories accusing Swinney of being Farage’s willing accomplice in next year’s Holyrood elections.
Russell Findlay, the Scottish Conservative leader, said the first minister was “thrilled” that Reform UK appeared to be making significant inroads into Tory and Labour support in Scotland, since that boosted the Scottish National party’s chances of winning a fifth term next May.
The Scottish Tories clearly see a political opportunity with Farage’s surge, since he appears to be indifferent about the prospects of the pro-independence SNP winning again. That allows the Tories to project their unionist credentials amongst pro-UK voters.
Speaking at the Tories’ event to mark a year before the 2026 Holyrood elections, Findlay said:
Nationalists always promote a political bogeyman without doing the hard work of good governance, and that’s why John Swinney constantly talks up Reform, because a vote for Reform is a vote for the SNP.
[He] knows exactly what he’s doing.
Swinney had denied that charge at the SNP’s “year to go” campaign event earlier this morning, insisting instead that Farage’s brand of politics was abhorrent, and unwelcome.
A new Survation opinion poll, released by the Aberdeen-based political consultancy True North just before Findlay began speaking, put Reform UK on 19% in the Holyrood constituency vote – its highest figure yet, and nosing ahead of Scottish Labour for the first time.
Survation found the SNP were on 33% and clear favourites to win. The psephologist John Curtice calculated that, given Reform is 20% on the list vote versus 18% for Labour, it could become Holyrood’s second largest party with 21 seats.
Labour would win only 18 seats, with the SNP on 58 and the Tories on just 13, Curtice said, suggesting that Reform is now breaking through in Scotland following last week’s surge in the English council elections.
The SNP has been in similar territory before. Alex Salmond, the then SNP leader and first minister, cited the rising threat of the UK Independence party then led by Farage before the 2014 European parliament elections.
Some pundits argue Salmond’s warning helped its lead candidate David Coburn win a Scottish seat for the first time in the European parliament; Ukip won its highest share of the vote under Farage that election.
Swinney confirmed that if next year’s election leads to a majority of pro-independence MSPs at Holyrood, he would again press for the right to stage an independence referendum.
Swinney said Labour under Keir Starmer was too frightened of Farage to promote the most obvious solution to the UK’s economic slump, which was rejoining the EU. He said Labour’s failures in government were to blame for Reform’s surge, not SNP policies.
Updated
According to the leading US pollster and politcal strategist, Stanley Greenberg, Labour should be delighted if the Tories want to put net zero at the heart of the political battle. (See 1.32pm.) Greenberg, who helped to get Bill Clinton elected US president and who has advised Tony Blair and other Labour party leaders, has written a long post on his blog about the opportunities available to Keir Starmer.
Greenberg says 2024 was an unusual election because, although voters were angry and wanted change, turnout was low. To explain this, he refers to his “fight” theory of campaigning.
I learned from studying E. E. Schattschneider’s Semi-Sovereign People that winning campaigns have figured out what is the fight that will impact voters the most. The fight creates the choice in the election. The fight gets different groups to turn out or stay home. The fight creates the winning coalition. The fight decides what issues or policies will be prioritized and debated. The fight creates the mandate after the election.
Greenberg argues that “fight” was missing from Labour’s campaign last year.
Starmer visibly marginalised Jeremy Corbyn personally and changed party rules to show who was control of the Labour party. He changed the rules as well to protect elected MPs and present the leadership as mainstream and ethical in contrast to Tory leaders. He and his shadow chancellor promised no increase in taxes on income.
But instead of using that reassurance to set out the fighting choices in the election, Professor Barry Richards writes, they offered “very similar solutions” on the “five issues of most concern to the British public” — “reform the NHS, grow the economy, relieve cost-of-living pressures, build more houses, and reduce immigration.”
Greenberg argues that Starmer now has the chance to wage a “fight” campaign on clean energy.
The prime minister has an opportunity to create a new mandate. It starts with energy and the rapid transition to renewable energy as the leading post-Brexit British industry. He can lead the world on energy and battling climate change, as he is now doing on security.
Tory party extinction cannot be ruled out, says former chancellor Jeremy Hunt
Jeremy Hunt, the former Conservative chancellor, has said that, although he does not expect the Tories to die out as a party, he would not rule it out.
In an interview with Andrew Neil for Times Radio, asked extinction was a possibility for the Conservative party, Hunt replied:
We can’t rule it out. Look at the massive earthquake in Western democratic politics in other countries and we are seeing wild swings.
I don’t think the Conservative party will ever be extinct, but what may be extinct is the old two-party system that’s seen parties swing between one party and the other. Certainly at the moment, voters seem to be split between five parties and that’s a very, very big change.
At the post-PMQs lobby briefing Downing Street said the UK and India have not agreed the “final details” of their social security aspect of the trade deal agreed yesterday.
Asked about the temporary national insurance contributions exemption for some Indian workers that is being criticised by the Tories, the PM’s spokesperson said:
It’s a separate agreement as part of a trade deal. It’s called a social security agreement, so what the UK and India have agreed to is negotiate a deal. We have not agreed the final details with this.
The spokesperson that there were similar reciprocal agreements with more than 50 other countries. And he stressed that the national insurance exemption applied to a “specific, business mobility, intra-company transfer schemes” and not wider migration.
The PM’s press secretary, who briefs party politcal matters, said opposition parties criticising the arrangement “have made their true colours known”, suggesting they would have “torn up” the agreements with 50 countries.
Starmer accuses Badenoch of being 'climate defeatist'
Here is the story from PA Media (the team where job cuts are looming – see 12.42pm) on PMQs. PA says:
Keir Starmer has labelled the Conservative party leader a “climate defeatist” as he defended the government’s record on winter fuel payments.
The prime minister at the despatch box described a “global race” for “the jobs of the future”, adding that he believed “Britain can win that”.
But Kemi Badenoch urged Starmer to “change course” to tackle energy costs during PMQs in their first exchange since both Labour and the Conservatives lost hundreds of council seats at last week’s English local elections.
Badenoch referred to comments made by Labour former prime minister Tony Blair in the foreword for a report from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
“This approach to net zero is ‘irrational’, it’s ‘doomed to fail’,” Mrs Badenoch told the Commons.
“Those aren’t my words. They’re Tony Blair’s.”
Blair introduced the paper published in April, titled The Climate Paradox, by saying it was a “chance to reset the debate, not by denying the urgency of climate action, but by updating the strategy”.
At PMQs Badenoch continued: “The truth is, the prime minister is on another planet. His net zero plans mean ever-more expensive energy.
“Across the country, jobs are disappearing. Last week, a ceramics factory in Stoke closed because of energy costs. This morning, 250 more job losses have been announced in the North Sea.
“And yet the amount of gas the UK is importing is doubling, so why is he shutting down the North Sea rather than getting our oil and gas out of the ground, and making energy cheaper?”
Starmer replied that “oil and gas will be part of the mix for many decades to come, but net zero is an opportunity to be seized”, adding: “The global race is on for the jobs of the future and I believe Britain can win that race.
“The leader of the opposition I don’t think is yet a climate denier, but she’s a climate defeatist.
“She doesn’t believe in Britain’s ability to win the race for our economy, businesses and jobs, and they’ve never backed Britain.
“There’s nothing patriotic about that.”
Badenoch said in response: “Pensioners are poorer and people are being laid off. From winter fuel to net zero, his energy policy is a disaster and everyone knows it.
“We know it. The public know it. The unions know it. His MPs know it. Even Tony Blair knows it.
“His only answer is to go further and faster in the wrong direction. Why should we all suffer because he won’t admit he’s got this wrong?”
PMQs - snap verdict
All of us have had the experience of being in a conversation where, when a topic comes up, we come up with a reply that is exceptionally clever or funny. It is immensely satisfying. Only, the conversation is not happening in real time, because we are reliving it in our memory, and we have finally dreamt up the clever riposte. We are rehearsing what we should have said at the time.
Sometimes this seems to be the best explanation for Kemi Badenoch’s strategy at PMQs. Last week, after Tony Blair published an article about net zero which to a large extent echoed what Badenoch had been saying, Badenoch ignored it at PMQs. Instead she asked about grooming gangs.
This week she finally caught up. But it did not feel as if, after seven days, she had had time to script a devastating line of attack. The most difficult question she asked was probably her third.
Why has the prime minister broken his promise to cut energy bills by £300?
As is often the case in politcal debate, particularly at PMQs, this had polemical heft because it wasn’t entirely true. Labour said, or meant to say, that its policies would lead to energy bills being £300 a year lower in 2029 than they otherwise would have been as a result of their green energy policies. Ed Miliband defends this claim very strongly. But it is not hard to see how, via the fuzz of communication, this ended up sounding like a promise to reduce energy bills in 2025 by £300, which has not happened. Badenoch scored a hit.
Generally, though, on net zero, Starmer had the upper hand, partly because he was able to quote Badenoch herself in support of government policy. He told MPs.
Energy bills on fossil fuel have fluctuated massively in the last three years because we are exposed to the international market.
The only way to get bills down is to go to renewable energy. It’s something [Badenoch] used to believe in.
I’ve got the shadow chancellor [Mel Stride] here, his previous words. “Net zero – the shift must happen now as a matter of urgency.” His words. “It’s no longer an environmental issue. Energy independence should be reviewed as part of our national security.” He must have our lines.
What about the leader of the opposition herself? She said: “We believe that green trade and investment will be the future-proofing force that will help us create better tomorrow.” And then she went on to say this. “It’s long-term investment in nuclear and renewables that will reduce our dependencies on fossil fuels and keep down consumer [costs].
She’s got a reputation, apparently, for straight talking. She was right, though, wasn’t she?
It was an effective put-down, although not quite as explanatory as this clip, from ITV’s Anushka Asthana, explaing to Badenoch when she was in the Peston studio why it’s is mistake to blame net zero for the UK’s high energy prices.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch - and all the anti-net zero zealots - getting educated about the basics of energy supply live on national TV pic.twitter.com/H8mxw96vdT
— Matthew Stadlen (@MatthewStadlen) April 29, 2025
Badenoch also asked about winter fuel payments, and Labour calls for a U-turn, but her questions on this just sounded opportunist. She might have done better if she had pushed Starmer more firmly to rule out a rethink. No 10 said yesterday that the policy would not be reversed, but there are people are Westminster who are not convinced that this line will hold.
Having pushed so aggressively the “two-tier taxation” critique of the UK-India trade deal yesterday (see 9.37am), many of us expected Badenoch to lead on this. But she didn’t – and Starmer’s outburst on this in response to a subsequent question from Matt Western perhaps explains why. (See 12.14pm.) Starmer was all set to blast this away as nonsense.
Updated
Torcuil Crichton (Lab) says the Press Association are planning to cut the number of the reporters they have in the press gallery in the Commons, so that there will no longer be “dawn to dusk” covering of proceedings in parliament. He says “no amount of AI will replace the human eyes”. He asks Starmer if he will join him and Rochdale MP Paul Waugh (Waugh and Crichton are both former lobby journalists) in asking PA to reconsider these cuts.
Starmer replies with a tribute to the work of journalists. He says:
[Crichton] raises a really important point. We enjoy free press and independent journalism in this country.
Across the world, journalists risk their lives and lose their lives doing what they do best, independently pursuing the truth. And I’ve been on many occasions to award ceremonies, usually on a yearly basis, where the names of those journalists who either lost their lives or their freedom is read out. It’s always a humbling reminder of the really important work that they do.
(Starmer is right about the importance of journalism, but his reply rather missed the point. Parliamentary journalists are mostly fine people, and they do a valuable job. But they don’t put their lives or liberty at risk in the way war correspondents do.)
Aphra Brandreth (Con) asks Starmer to promise not to hand over any powers to the EU in the reset summit, particularly over fishing.
Starmer says there is a better deal to be had. He won’t provide a running commentary. But he will act in the national interst.
Matt Vickers (Con) says a constituent asked about a rumour about the PM. “No, not that one.” It was about the national insurance rise leading to pubs closing. Why does the PM hate pubs?
Starmer says no one likes pubs more than he does. He says the Tories welcome the spending funded by the national insurance increase, but won’t support the means of paying for it.
Maureen Burke (Lab) asks about constituents living in temporary housing.
Starmer says the SNP has failed to address this problem.
Starmer refuses invitation to say ethnic cleansing happening in Gaza
Shockat Adam (Ind) asks about the Israeli government’s plans for Gaza. Will the PM finally admit that ethnic cleansing is happening. And will he suspend the sale of F-35 fighters. If not, the UK is at risk of being brought to trial at The Hague?
Starmer says most of what Adam said was not right. But he says the government is committed to a two-state solution.
Siân Berry (Green) says the government should be supporting disabled people, not cutting their benefits.
Starmer says the principles behind the government’s approach are clear.
Those that need support and protection should have that support and protection. Those that can be supported and helped into work should be helped and supported into work. … And those who can work should [be protected].
Roz Savage (Lib Dem) says the UK is now the ninth most unequal of developed countries. Will the government introduce measures to cut inequality?
Starmer says Savage is right to raise this. Breakfast clubs will help, he says, the minimum wage has gone up, and the government’s child poverty taskforce is looking at all measures that might cut inequality.
Meg Hillier (Lab) says the borough of Hackney spends £54m on temporary housing. Will the government spend more on social housing?
Starmer says the government is investing in social housing, as well as tackling the root causes of homelessness.
Tessa Munt (Lib Dem) thanks the government for its recognition of the work of the RAF’s photographic reconnaisance squadron. They had a near death rate of 50%, and only a two and a half month life expectancy.
A mobile phone goes off.
Starmer says he thinks MPs would support a memorial to the bravery of the people in the photographic reconnaisance unit.
Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, asks about job losses in Aberdeen. He asks why the government is bothered about job losses in Scunthorpe but not in Scotland.
Starmer says Flynn will do almost anything to distract attention from the SNP’s “appalling” record in Scotland.
Davey condemns Trump's proposed tariffs on films, saying he won't beat 'James Bond, Bridget Jones and Paddington'
Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, says Starmer should reverse the winter fuel payments cut.
And he asks Starmer to speed up social care reform.
Starmer says Davey comes to the Commons every week asking for things without saying how they might be paid for.
Davey criticises President Trump for proposing tariffs on UK films. Will Stamer tell Trump that if he “picks a fight with James Bond, Bridget Jones and Paddington Bear, he will lose”.
Starmer says Davey should listen to industry. They want the government to agree a trade deal with the US.
Updated
Starmer says criticism of UK-India trade deal over tax exemptions are 'incoherent nonsense'
Starmer says the India trade deal is good for British jobs.
And he says the criticism on double taxation is “incoherent nonsense”.
He says trade deal with 50 other countries have clauses like this. If the Tories are going to tear up these agreements, they should say so.
UPDATE: See 3.25pm for the full quote.
Updated
Badenoch says the government’s energy policy is a disaster.
Starmer says Badenoch is talking down the country. She should be celebrating the trade deal with India, he says.
Badenoch quotes Blair, claiming he said the net zero policy was irrational.
She asks why the government is stoppoing oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.
Starmer says he does not think Badenoch is a climate denier. But she is a climate defeatist.
Badenoch claims the government cannot cut energy bills because of its net zero policies.
Starmer says energy bills have fluctated because of changes to global gas prices.
He says Badenoch has abandoned the policy she used to support.
He quotes Mel Stride, the chancellor, and Badenoch herself in the past backing this argument.
Badenoch says the Tories would not balance the budget on the back of pensions.
Why has Labour broken its promise to cut energy bills by £300?
Starmer says the way to bring energy bills down is by promoting cheap, green energy.
Badenoch’s policies won’t bring bills down. She is opposed to green energy, and Tories block infrastracture planning applications, she says.
Badenoch says the only black hole is the one that Starmer is digging.
Will he listen to Labour colleagues saying he must change his mind on this?
Starmer says no other party is saying how they would fix the government’s finances.
Kemi Badenoch echoes the PM’s comments about VE Day.
Does the PM now admit he was wrong to cut the winter fuel payment?
Starmer says the government had to fix the black hole in the economy. The government is committed to the triple lock. Because of the work done to the economy, countries like India want to do deals with the UK.
Matt Bishop (Lab) asks about support for brain cancer patients.
Starmer sends his best wishes to the brain cancer patient mentioned by Bishop, and he says the Plan for Change is already speeding up diagnosis. The government is investing in more scanners and mobile hubs, he says.
Starmer says UK-India trade deal 'huge win' for Britons
Keir Starmer starts by saying rising tensions between India and Pakistan will be of serious concern for many across Britain. The government is enouraging de-escalation, he says.
He says tomorrow the nation will fall silent to commemorate VE Day. The armed forces protect our freedom, he says.
He says the trade deal with India is a “huge win” for Britons. It is the biggest trade deal since Brexit.
Starmer faces Badenoch at PMQs
PMQs is starting very soon.
Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.
Starmer defends proposed legal change to stop protesters climbing on Churchill statue in Parliament Square
At one point when he was opposition leader, Keir Starmer criticised the then Conservative government for being more interested in protecting statues than women.
Labour is prioritising protecting women, and Starmer has pledged to halve violence against women and girls. But he is not ignoring statues either. According to a report by Jack Elsom in the Sun, the government is going to reclassify Winston Churchill’s statue in Parliament Square as war memorial so that anyone who climbs on it is committing an offence punishable by up to three months in jail under measures in the crime and policing bill.
Starmer told the Sun for the story:
Sir Winston Churchill stands at the summit of our country’s greatest heroes, and has been an inspiration to every prime minister that has followed him.
The justifiable fury that is provoked when people use his statue as a platform for their protests speaks to the deep and enduring love that all decent British people have for Sir Winston.
It is the least we owe him, and the rest of the greatest generation, to make those acts criminal.
Minister confirms government considering UK-EU youth mobility scheme - less than 2 weeks after telling MPs it wasn't
And, on the subject of trade deals, Nick Thomas-Symonds, the Cabinet Office minister in charge of post-Brexit relations with the EU, has confirmed that the government is considering a youth mobilty deal with Brussels.
As George Parker reports in the Financial Times, Thomas-Symonds said that, provided the UK government’s red lines were respected, “a smart, controlled youth mobility scheme would of course have benefits for our young people”.
He added: “We will consider sensible EU proposals in this space.”
This will, of course, come as no surprise to anyone who has been reading the news for the last few weeks.
But it will come as a surprise anyone naive enough to take what government ministers have said on this at face value. Less than two weeks ago, during Cabinet Office questions in the Commons, Thomas-Symonds was asked by the Lib Dem MP Sarah Olney, if the government would support a UK-EU youth mobility scheme. Thomas-Symonds replied:
A youth mobility scheme is not part of our plans. We have always said that we will listen to sensible EU proposals, but we will not go back to freedom of movement.
Updated
Reynolds declines to deny report saying UK-US trade deal set to be signed this week
According to the Financial Times splash, the UK and the US has all but agreed a trade deal which is “set to be signed this week”. Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, would not confirm this when he gave interviews this morning. But he did not deny the reports either. He told the Today programme that he could not give a running commentary, but that he was “working extremely hard” to get the deal.
In their story, Jim Pickard, Peter Foster and Aime Williams say:
The UK and the US are close to agreeing a trade pact that would cushion the impact of Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs by granting lower-tariff quotas for British car and steel exports, according to officials in London and Washington.
The deal — set to be signed this week — is due to include quotas that spare some UK exports from the full brunt of the additional 25 per cent tariffs that Trump levied on steel and car imports in February and March …
As well as offering quotas for UK exports, Britain is also hoping to secure reductions in the sector-specific 25 per cent tariffs that Trump has levied on cars and steel.
The UK’s “offers” include concessions to Washington on Britain’s digital services tax levied on international technology companies, cuts on tariffs imposed on US car exports, and a reduction of tariffs on American agricultural products.
Labour heading for third place in next year's Senedd elections, poll suggests, with Plaid Cymru set to come first
YouGov has two new polls out this morning – and both of them are good for Reform UK.
Here are the GB voting intention figures, from the regular polling that YouGov does for the Times.
Reform: 29% (+3 from last week)
Labour: 22% (-1)
Conservatives: 17% (-3)
Liberal Democrats: 16% (+1)
Greens: 10% (+1)
According to YouGov, these are the lowest figures for the Tories since June 2019, when they were also on 17%, and the lowest figures for Labour since October 2019.
And this is the highest figure YouGov has ever recorded for Reform UK.
YouGov has also published a poll for ITV Cymru of voting intentions for the Senedd elections next year. It shows Plaid Cymru coming first, with Reform UK in second place and the Labour party, which has been the most powerful party in Wales most of the last century, coming third.
Labour has been in power in the Senedd since devolution but, commenting on what these figures would mean for Senedd seats in 2026, Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre told ITV:
Modelling indicates Plaid Cymru would emerge as the largest party with approximately 35 seats, followed closely by Reform UK with 30 seats.
If these polling figures were replicated in an actual election, Labour would secure 19 seats, while the Conservatives would hold nine seats and the Liberal Democrats three seats. However, it’s important to note that 10 of these projected seats fall within a very narrow margin of error (less than 2%), meaning even minor shifts in vote intention could produce a substantially different Senedd composition.
The electoral system for the Senedd has changed, and next year there will be 96 MSs (members of the Senedd) elected, meaning a party or coalition will need 49 seats to have a majority.
Senior Tory MPs and peers break ranks to call for recognition of Palestine
More than a dozen senior Conservative MPs and peers have written to the prime minister calling for the UK to immediately recognise Palestine as a state, breaking ranks with their own party to do so, Kiran Stacey reports.
Trade policy Twitter is furious about the crassness of the Tory/Reform UK attacks on the double contribution convention aspect of the UK-India trade deal. These are from Allie Renison, a trade expert who has advised government.
Under a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition in 2012, the UK and Chile signed an agreement exempting temporary workers from social security contributions for *five* years
Not undercutting then, not undercutting now with India
Do better, people
People cannot come unless their company has sent them to do specific work overseas for a time limited period
Not looking for work to apply to in the first place
If only people would read rather than thinking everything is a grand conspiracy
This is from Sam Lowe, another trade specialist, on Bluesky.
The UK already has reciprocal agreements for social security contributions with quite a few countries, btw …
This is from Brendan Chilton, director of the Institute for Prosperity thintank.
Extraordinary to see so called Brexiteers attacking a free trade deal between the UK and the biggest economy in the Commonwealth.
The NIC [national insurance contributions] thing is reciprocal. What we are seeing is Reform stirring up racism against Indian workers here in the UK and it is disgusting.
And this is from Paul Kelso, business correspondent at Sky News.
If you want a tax break on National Insurance you don’t need to be an Indian multinational to get it. British companies get three year’s relief if they move into Freeport zones, established in Jeremy Hunt’s last Budget. Tax reliefs = routine incentive to encourage investment
Updated
Critics of UK-India trade deal ‘confused’, says Jonathan Reynolds, as he denies British workers being undercut
Good morning. Yesterday the government was able to announce some good news – a major trade deal with India.
There is cross-party consensus that trade deals are a good thing, the last Conservative government was working on a trade deal with India too, and at least some Tories were happy to welcome the deal. Oliver Dowden, the former deputy PM, posted this on social media.
Welcome progress with conclusion of UK-India FTA. I remember firsthand Jonathan Reynolds’s commitment to the relationship from our cross-party delegation to India!
Builds on significant progress made by previous Conservative government.
Free trade is a win-win for both nations
And Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former business secretary who is on the opposite wing of the party to Dowden, posted this.
Cheaper food and drink including rice and tea, footwear and clothing thanks to a welcome trade deal with India. Exactly what Brexit promised.
But Dowden and Rees-Mogg did not get the memo about the official opposition line. As reported on the blog yesterday afternoon, Kemi Badenoch decided to attack the deal on the grounds that it includes a double contribution convention, which means that Indian workers temporarily living in the UK will not have to pay national insurance contributions for three years – with British workers in India benefiting in the same way. Crucially, Badenoch found an effective means of putting a negative spin on this relatively niche feature of the deal – she described it as “two-tier” taxation, involving “tax refunds for Indians not available to us”. Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, was quickly making the same argument too, claiming the government was making it 20% cheaper to employ an Indian worker than a British worker. In a video he said the deal was “appalling”, and claimed it showed Labour had “in a big, big way betrayed working Britain”.
Badenoch has certainly been successful at landing her message with the rightwing papers. Here are some of today’s front pages.
Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, has been giving interviews this morning. His main task was to counter the Tory/Reform UK claims and he insisted that double contribution conventions were a routine feature of trade deals, applying to just a sub-category of workers (employees from firms with operations in both the UK and India, seconded temporarily from one country to another), and that the British workers were not being undercut. The Tories and Reform UK were “confused”, he said.
He told the Today programme:
There is no situation where I would ever tolerate British workers being undercut through any trade agreement we would sign. That is not part of this deal.
What the Conservatives are confused about, and Reform as well, is a situation where a business in India seconds someone for a short period of time to the UK, or a UK business seconds a worker to India for a short period of time, where you don’t pay in simultaneously now to both social security systems …
This is exactly the sort of deal we have with 50 countries already, with the US, Canada, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand.
The Conservatives recently, well a few years ago when they were in government, signed one with Chile for five years. So no, British workers are not being undercut.
Asked whether the agreement meant Indian workers paying less tax than British counterparts doing the same job, Reynolds told the programme: “No.”
In an interview with Sky News, Reynolds said that the trade deal would generate more than £1bn in extra tax revenues for the Treasury. He said the double contribution convention would cost “less than a tenth of that”.
Here is the agenda for the day.
8.30am: Rhun ap Iorwerth, the Plaid Cymru leader, gives a speech in Cardiff marking one year to go until the next Senedd elections.
9.45am: Pat McFadden, the Cabinet Office minister, gives a speech to the CyberUK conference in Manchester.
10.30am: John Swinney, Scotland’s first minister, gives a speech in Edinburgh on SNP strategy running into next year’s Holyrood elections. Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, is also giving a speech this morning, at 10.45am, as is the Scottish Consevative leader, Russel Findley, at 12.30pm.
10.55am: Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker, attends a ‘Turning of the Page Ceremony’ in the Commons, with the book of remembrance naming MPs killed in both world wars, as part of the VE Day 80th anniversary celebrations.
Noon: Keir Starmer faces Kemi Badenoch at PMQs.
Lunchtime: Rachel Reeves, the chancellor is visiting a Scotch whisky distillery near Edinburgh to promote the UK-India trade deal (which cuts tariffs on whisky exports to India).
2.30pm: Nick Thomas-Symonds, the Cabinet Office minister, gives evidence to an infected blood inquiry hearing about compensation payment arrangements.
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